[pct-l] Shop-As-You-Go Re-Supply - Will It Work?

[dave.brunstein at honeywell.com (Brunstein, Dave)]

Hi all:

Will the on-trail "shop-as-you-go" re-supply strategy work for the PCT?

A number of smart folks (Chris and Janelle, folks in the The PCT Handbook, etc.) have recommended a "shop-as-you-go"
re-supply strategy versus mailing yourself food drops.  Sounds like a great idea from a logistics and mailing cost
standpoint.  I have concerns that as more and more folks convert to this strategy that the demand may overwhelm the
supply. 

It seems that if a significant number of thru-hikers use this practice, they could easily clean out a small store of
those food stuffs and fuel popular with thru-hikers.  It seems that there are a number of small or medium-sized stores
(Mt. Laguna, Julian, Idyllwild, etc.) along the trail that need to be relied upon for supplies.

With several hundred hikers starting within a fairly small time window, it seems likely that the smaller stores might be
unprepared for the thru-hiker demand spike and would run out of popular food and fuel choices.

Some questions for all to discuss:
1. How likely are stock-outs of food or fuel?
2. What percent of folks use this strategy versus mail drops?  Is the percentage growing considering the recommendations
in The PCT Handbook and at PCTA.org?
3. Do the on-trail markets anticipate the thru-hiker demand at the right time of year and "stock up" on mac & cheese,
Lipton's, HEET, etc.?
4. Do the back-of-the-pack hikers ever find bare shelves?
5. If yes to #4, what recovery options work?

Thanks,
Dave