[pct-l] Re: Sierra Snow Prediction - March 1st

[Bighummel at aol.com (Bighummel@aol.com)]

Oh, Tom,

Sorry man, your assumption that this is an El Nino year is not corroborated 
by the Pacific ocean currents, the accumulations of precipitation, etc., etc.  
It may be a mild El Nino, but it aint no full blown El Nino.  

As such, your assumption that there will be abundant late Spring 
accumulations are only supported by historical information to the tune of 20%, even in El 
Nino years.  Check out the historical information on the snow survey sites and 
do your statistical homework before making unsubstantiated assumptions.  

At least my assumption that Spring will bring a rapid meltoff is based upon 
the flip side of that statistic; 80%.  Equally flippant assumption, however 
based upon higher quality - flimsy information.

Isn't making predictions fun?  No one is right and you can argue until you 
are blue in the face, twisting the statistics this way and that to make your own 
points, but in the end the fat lady, Mother Nature, gets to sing her tune the 
way she intends, regardless.

Oh, and Tom and I have these in-your-face, pseudo heated arguements every 
single year, primarily for YOUR benefit, to show you that in order for you to 
successfully get through the Sierra as early as possible, you really have to do 
your own homework, believe no one and keep re-doing it until you reach Kennedy 
Meadows.

Best regards and kisses,

Greg

In a message dated 3/4/2005 1:27:31 PM Pacific Standard Time, 
reynolds@iLAN.com writes:
This is an El Nino year. It is very likely that more rain hits and the 
Southern Sierra hits 150% of normal on April 1 as opposed to 80% of normal last 
year. That's double the snow man, double. Further the El Nino tends to extend the 
cold weather and make for a much later melt than normal such as 1998.