[pct-l] RE: Sierra Snow Prediction - March 1st

[reynolds at iLAN.com (Reynolds, WT)]

Greg-
Sorry man, it ain't gonna happen the way you think.
It is true that snow melt, not snow accumulation, is more of a determining
factor of when one should leave Kennedy Meadows but even if the Snow starts
melting the first week in March like it did last year the snow levels in
2005 would reach the equivilent levels of 2004 6, that's right 6! weeks
later. So, to put it simply, if a spectacular snow melt occurs that allows a
June 18th entry as you suggest, the creek crossings will be raging torrents
that are basically uncrossable.
 
This is an El Nino year. It is very likely that more rain hits and the
Southern Sierra hits 150% of normal on April 1 as opposed to 80% of normal
last year. That's double the snow man, double. Further the El Nino tends to
extend the cold weather and make for a much later melt than normal such as
1998.
 
If I was idiotic enough to thruhike the PCT it wouldn't be this year. Next
year will be far easier. However, if, for some reason I simply MUST hike the
PCT this year I would follow Jonathan Breems example. His 1998 diary
recorded the value of crampons. He related how he was easily able to walk on
the top of the hard snow very early in the day and make his miles without
post-holing later in the afternoon while other hikers had to wait until the
snow softened and, as a result, were faced with miles of post-holing.
Jonathan also recommended using Ski Mountaineer's Pass, not Forrester Pass
since the cornice on Forrester was simply impossible. 
 
 
The problem, however, is that unless one knows how to install and use
crampons they can easily seriously injure themselves. I would be out
learning to use crampons NOW, not pretending that somehow 2005 would be a
normal snow year.
 
Tom Reynolds (remember me?)
ADZPCTKO Founder
 
PS: Don't count on VVR being open in June. Plan on resupplying over
Kearsarge Pass and Mammoth

  _____  

From: Bighummel@aol.com [mailto:Bighummel@aol.com] 
Sent: Tuesday, March 01, 2005 1:22 PM
To: pct-l@backcountry.net
Cc: skygeorge@earthlink.net; jstewart01@fs.fed.us; reynolds@iLAN.com
Subject: Sierra Snow Prediction - March 1st


Well, here it is, March 1st, and the Sierra snow levels are interesting.
Central and Northern Sierra survey sites are closely tracking last year's
levels, while the Southern Sierra sites are tracking significantly above
average.  
 
At Upper Tyndall Creek survey there is currently 29.5 inches of snow depth.
This falls significantly above the historical values for this date and
therefore suggests that we will have a slightly later meltoff than normal.
Looking at years with similar amounts of snow at this date and averaging
their "zero" snow level days, I come up with June 18th as the most likely
zero snow level day at this snow survey site and a good Sierra - Kennedy
Meadows entry date to aim for.  
 
Now, the caveats;
- I recommend entering the Sierra when there is a bit of snow left and even
solid snow and ice above 11,000 or 12,000 feet.  
 
- The level of snow in the Southern Sierra may not be accurately portrayed
by this snow survey site, even though it is at high elevation (11,400') and
very near the PCT.
 
- When this site says "zero snow" there may be considerable snow elsewhere;
on north facing slopes, in canyons, in forests, at higher elevations, etc.
 
- You should have an ice axe and know how to use it in order to cross the
high passes if you enter the Sierra under these conditions. 
 
- You should be comfortable with, and experienced and equipped for, camping
and hiking in light snow and ice conditions.
 
- There is a roughly 20% chance of a significant late Spring storm that can
extend the "zero snow" entry date significantly.
 
- Your Mileage May Vary
 
- Snow conditions / rates of accumulation / rates of meltoff will likely
change (i.e. keep monitoring the snow conditions before you get to Kennedy
Meadows)
 
- This prediction of an entry date into the Sierra is based upon what I
would be doing at this point in the Winter to guestimate when I would plan
to start my hike.  Notice the words "I" and "my".   Your methods to
guestimate your start date at the border are also equally valid.
 
- Only 30 years of historical records are available for a limited number of
snow survey sites in the Sierra.  This is a miniscule number statistically.
The number of years that are similar to this year is even smaller.  Making a
prediction based upon one or two snow survey sites utilizing the information
from just a few years is recognized as irresponsible, simplistic and stupid.
 
- Note the word "aim" NOT "plan".  Your plan should be flexible and
constantly changing to accomodate the latest and best information that you
are able to come by.
 
- Predictions in mid-May will be much more accurate.
 
THEREFORE, you should take this prediction in the light that it is
presented; A wild assed guess!  Use your own good judgement and as many
additional information sources as you can find, and, frequent updates on the
conditions in the southern Sierra as you hike towards it in Sth Calif.
 
Best regards,
 
Greg "Strider" Hummel
 
P.S.  ttthhhsssssss . . . Tom!