[pct-l] snow comparisons

[lkcedar-pctl at yahoo.com (Lon Cooper)]

Interesting information in your post. I am curious
about a couple of things.

What exactly is snow, water content?

Why do you favor some sensors over others?

Do you have an opinion on the UTY flat line issue 
raised yesterday?

-Lon


Do you have an opionion on the issue 
--- "Reynolds, WT" <reynolds@iLAN.com> wrote:
> Donna's question will take some research. I can,
> however, answer The
> Weathercarrot
> 
> The process I use compares the snow on the UTY snow
> pillar for various
> years. Both Greg and I use this indicator necause it
> is the best indicator
> of the snow accumulation in the high southern
> passes. The second best
> indicator IMHO is Bishop Pass. 
> 
> On April 1, what I did was pick snow years where
> there was considerable snow
> at this location. They, in fact corresponded with
> the high snow years that
> you indicated. I then graphed the melt on UTY using
> data on 3/1, 4/1, 5/1,
> 6/1 and 7/1. My conclusion on April 1 was that there
> was generally zero melt
> between April1 and May 1. Only in 1997 did an April
> melt occur in a big snow
> year. In every other year a slower than normal melt
> followed a big snow
> year.
> 
> On May 1, I checked the actual UTY [and other] snow
> pillars and found that
> my April 1 analysis was correct. There had been zero
> melt on UTY. In fact
> the temperature rarely reached freezing. At this
> point I threw out the 1997
> early melt data and focused on the others. In all
> cases the slop of the snow
> melt after May 1 was less than normal. Using that
> data I predict the day
> where there will be zero snow on the UTY snow pillar
> as July 12. In 1995
> that date was July 11 and in 1998 it was July 24
> according to my
> predictions. Checking the historical record I find
> my predictions accurate
> within a day.
> 
> After May 1 everything depends on the weather. I am
> now using "Forecast of
> Runnoff Volumes" as my predictor of how fast the
> snow will melt.
> Unfortunately I have only looked at this data since
> 1998. Using weather data
> this report tries to predict when the peak melt will
> occur. The report is
> updated every 5 days and uses the weather forcast to
> predict the melt for
> the next 10 days. Let me say simply that this could
> be a very bad year.
> Also, let me say that the southern mountains will
> continue to be daunting
> because we are looking at cold, wet weather for the
> next 10 days and very
> little melt is likely to occur.
> 
> To specifically answer The Weathercarrot's question,
> 2005 looks very much
> like 1995 at this point. 
> 
> Date		05/05		06/01		07/01		UTY zero day
> 2005		40		
> 1995		39		31		11		7/12
> 1998		45		40		25		7/23
> 1983		65		57		35		7/23
> 1993		30		17		0		6/28
>