[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next][Date Index][Thread Index]

[pct-l] snow comparisons



Donna's question will take some research. I can, however, answer The
Weathercarrot

The process I use compares the snow on the UTY snow pillar for various
years. Both Greg and I use this indicator necause it is the best indicator
of the snow accumulation in the high southern passes. The second best
indicator IMHO is Bishop Pass. 

On April 1, what I did was pick snow years where there was considerable snow
at this location. They, in fact corresponded with the high snow years that
you indicated. I then graphed the melt on UTY using data on 3/1, 4/1, 5/1,
6/1 and 7/1. My conclusion on April 1 was that there was generally zero melt
between April1 and May 1. Only in 1997 did an April melt occur in a big snow
year. In every other year a slower than normal melt followed a big snow
year.

On May 1, I checked the actual UTY [and other] snow pillars and found that
my April 1 analysis was correct. There had been zero melt on UTY. In fact
the temperature rarely reached freezing. At this point I threw out the 1997
early melt data and focused on the others. In all cases the slop of the snow
melt after May 1 was less than normal. Using that data I predict the day
where there will be zero snow on the UTY snow pillar as July 12. In 1995
that date was July 11 and in 1998 it was July 24 according to my
predictions. Checking the historical record I find my predictions accurate
within a day.

After May 1 everything depends on the weather. I am now using "Forecast of
Runnoff Volumes" as my predictor of how fast the snow will melt.
Unfortunately I have only looked at this data since 1998. Using weather data
this report tries to predict when the peak melt will occur. The report is
updated every 5 days and uses the weather forcast to predict the melt for
the next 10 days. Let me say simply that this could be a very bad year.
Also, let me say that the southern mountains will continue to be daunting
because we are looking at cold, wet weather for the next 10 days and very
little melt is likely to occur.

To specifically answer The Weathercarrot's question, 2005 looks very much
like 1995 at this point. 

Date		05/05		06/01		07/01		UTY zero day
2005		40		
1995		39		31		11		7/12
1998		45		40		25		7/23
1983		65		57		35		7/23
1993		30		17		0		6/28

-----Original Message-----
From: dsaufley@sprynet.com [mailto:dsaufley@sprynet.com] 
Sent: Thursday, May 05, 2005 9:55 AM
To: The Weathercarrot; reynolds@iLAN.com; pct-l@mailman.backcountry.net
Subject: Re: [pct-l] snow comparisons

My curiosity extends to the southern ranges.  It seems to me to be one of
the heaviest snow years in recollection in the San Bernardino and San
Gabriel Range.  I remember the snow being heavy late into '98, but I don't
remember the local situation being quite as daunting.

L-Rod

-----Original Message-----
From: The Weathercarrot <weathercarrot@hotmail.com>
Sent: May 4, 2005 10:24 PM
To: reynolds@iLAN.com, pct-l@mailman.backcountry.net
Subject: [pct-l] snow comparisons

Tom writes:

<< Well, 2005 is shaping up like I predicted. The May 1 snow survey is in
and it shows San Joaquin 200% of normal (up from 164% April 1), Kings 170%
of normal (up from 132%) and Kern 186% (up from 145%). Further, the forcast
is for cold, wet weather well into the second half of May. We are looking at
a big, late winter. >>

One thing I've been very curious about is how this year compares to 1983,
1993, 1995, and 1998. Do you have enough historical data to give us specific
comparisons between what we've got now and those four other high snow years?

thanks,

wc


_______________________________________________
pct-l mailing list
pct-l@mailman.backcountry.net
unsubscribe or change options:
http://mailman.hack.net/mailman/listinfo/pct-l