[pct-l] Deep Survival

[gray_hiker at mindpoison.org (Gray)]

Um, while he may call this chaos theory... It's not anything close to
the actual chaos theory. 

If you are interested in Chaos Theory, I highly recommend the book
"Chaos" by James Gleik. A fairly low-math introduction to a very, very
complicated idea.

Gray

> -----Original Message-----
> From: pct-l-bounces@mailman.backcountry.net 
> [mailto:pct-l-bounces@mailman.backcountry.net] On Behalf Of 
> CMountainDave@aol.com
> Sent: Saturday, January 24, 2004 6:34 PM
> To: pct-l@backcountry.net
> Subject: [pct-l] Deep Survival
> 
> 
> Just read the book Deep Survival. It was kind of cerebral at 
> first but came 
> on strong in the middle and late chapters. Very scary stuff. 
> It uses the chaos 
> theory to show that the very things we do to make us safe may 
> be the very 
> things that do us in when ANY risk is involved. Rules make us 
> rigid, and as he 
> says, rigid people are dangerous people. Education and 
> experience can lead to 
> overconfidence: we categorize situations from what we know 
> and have learned and 
> that may not be appropriate when unfamiliar situations arise. 
> We let our guard 
> down when attaining success and that may be the moment to be 
> most on guard  He uses the accident a couple of years ago on 
> Mt Hood to make several 
> points. The people involved were experienced climbers. They 
> were roped up as taught. 
> But as the uphill guy on the rope (the most experienced) 
> removed his ice ax 
> anchor to descend, he slipped and was unable to self arrest 
> before plowing into 
> the other members of his team. They hit another rope team, 
> got all tangled up 
> and hit a third team. All nine of them went into a crevasse 
> and three died.
>   The conclusion was that a rope team without an anchor on 
> steep snow is a 
> suicide pact. They would have been better off unroped. True, 
> they could have 
> anchored all the way down, but given human nature that was 
> highly unlikely 
> because it would have taken until well after dark to get 
> down, potentially causing 
> other problems. The Chaos Theory said that this accident was 
> inevitable. Yet 
> the very next day, rope teams were on Mt. Hood were doing the 
> very same thing  They did not anticipate, because they had no 
> experience in a failed system, 
> just one that worked until it failed. 
>  He states that plans and "what if" strategy, and training 
> are good but 
> versatility is imperative when it comes to risk
>     Just today, I read a story about how technicians 
> dismantling an aging 
> nuclear weapon came upon an unfamiliar situation and made a 
> choice that nearly 
> caused, at best, plutonium to be released in a highly 
> populated area and, at 
> worst, could have caused a hydrogen bomb to go off. Someone 
> just happened to be 
> versatile and the disaster was avoided. The Chaos Theory in 
> action. Very scary 
> indeed
>    So on your upcoming PCT hikes, I suggest you become 
> versatile as well as 
> train and plan if you hope to succeed
>   I highly recommend the book. David C 
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