[pct-l] Deep Survival

[CMountainDave at aol.com (CMountainDave@aol.com)]

Just read the book Deep Survival. It was kind of cerebral at first but came 
on strong in the middle and late chapters. Very scary stuff. It uses the chaos 
theory to show that the very things we do to make us safe may be the very 
things that do us in when ANY risk is involved. Rules make us rigid, and as he 
says, rigid people are dangerous people. Education and experience can lead to 
overconfidence: we categorize situations from what we know and have learned and 
that may not be appropriate when unfamiliar situations arise. We let our guard 
down when attaining success and that may be the moment to be most on guard
 He uses the accident a couple of years ago on Mt Hood to make several 
points. The people involved were experienced climbers. They were roped up as taught. 
But as the uphill guy on the rope (the most experienced) removed his ice ax 
anchor to descend, he slipped and was unable to self arrest before plowing into 
the other members of his team. They hit another rope team, got all tangled up 
and hit a third team. All nine of them went into a crevasse and three died.
  The conclusion was that a rope team without an anchor on steep snow is a 
suicide pact. They would have been better off unroped. True, they could have 
anchored all the way down, but given human nature that was highly unlikely 
because it would have taken until well after dark to get down, potentially causing 
other problems. The Chaos Theory said that this accident was inevitable. Yet 
the very next day, rope teams were on Mt. Hood were doing the very same thing
 They did not anticipate, because they had no experience in a failed system, 
just one that worked until it failed. 
 He states that plans and "what if" strategy, and training are good but 
versatility is imperative when it comes to risk
    Just today, I read a story about how technicians dismantling an aging 
nuclear weapon came upon an unfamiliar situation and made a choice that nearly 
caused, at best, plutonium to be released in a highly populated area and, at 
worst, could have caused a hydrogen bomb to go off. Someone just happened to be 
versatile and the disaster was avoided. The Chaos Theory in action. Very scary 
indeed
   So on your upcoming PCT hikes, I suggest you become versatile as well as 
train and plan if you hope to succeed
  I highly recommend the book. David C