[pct-l] Deep Survival

[CMountainDave at aol.com (CMountainDave@aol.com)]

In a message dated 1/24/04 7:56:13 PM, gray_hiker@mindpoison.org writes:

<< Um, while he may call this chaos theory... It's not anything close to
the actual chaos theory. 
 >>

   Well, actually he is saying accidents happen because risk makes them 
inevitable. That goes for plane crashes, car crashes, space shuttles, Mars rovers 
and fail safe plans for nuclear plants and weapons. He says the only sure way 
to avoid an accident is not to fly, not to drive, not to build nuclear plants 
and weapons
 An example: an inexperienced soldier believes that war will not kill him. An 
experienced soldier sees others die and then believes he has to be careful in 
order to survive. Finally he realizes that it WILL eventually happen to him 
and that the only way to avoid death in war as a soldier is to not participate 
to begin with
   Of course none of this knowledge is going to stop people from taking risk
  In other words, the best laid plans of mice and men sometimes fail, and 
when they do you had better be versatile and have a mind set for improvisation or 
you will fail. That might mean death in the case of mountain climbing, or 
that your thru hike will come to an abrupt, unexpected end
 Just read another story about 7 skiers killed in an avalanche last year. The 
rangers said they did EVERY last little thing right. The guide was one of the 
most experienced in the entire world. A slope avalanched that the guide had 
not seen do so for 18 years. He tested that same slope that very morning. What 
went wrong? He assumed the slope was avalanche proof even though it was at the 
perfect angle for avalanches and the snowpack was 40% below normal. The 
TAUGHT methods for testing avalanche conditions were, obviously, flawed. So much 
for assumption and tested systems. The buried people all had beacons and were 
exhumed within ten - 20 minutes, but they died anyway. So much for assuming 
plans and safety will trump risk. Nothing trumps risk. You just have to deal with 
it when you inevitably throw snake eyes and improvise. Gut feelings also count.
    The result of this accident is absolutely nothing. It will be treated as 
if it never occurred, because people are not about to give up skiing on 
potential avalanche slopes. They will go on believing that a system makes them safe. 
    As for nuclear safeguard systems may I suggest Fail-safe, Dr. 
Strangelove, and Chernobyl, and a 1969 plutonium fire at Rocky Flats in Colorado (my dad 
was involved) The ONLY thing that kept a ton of plutonium from contaminating 
the entire city of Denver was a firefighter who said the hell with a procedure 
that wasn't working, followed his gut instinct and IMPROVISED a way out. 
Scary, huh?
    David C