[pct-l] Re: Snow Predictitions (was good starting date?)

[Bighummel at aol.com (Bighummel@xxxxxxx)]

First and foremost, I have NO method for predicting 2 or 3 months in advance 
what the snowpack conditions in the Sierras will be and neither do you.

Speak for yourself.  I have three months of snow records on March 1st with 
which to compare to the March levels of each of 30 years of snow historical 
records in the Sierra.  In over 80 percent of those years you could reasonably 
predict the approximate meltoff date from the perspective of March 1st.  Average 
snow levels from March 1st suggests fairly accurately that an average date 
meltoff was coming.  Very heavy snow levels at March 1st suggests that a very 
late meltoff is coming.  In 1976 and 1977 there was hardly any snow in the 
Sierras on March 1st and you would have wasted 5 to 6 weeks of great hiking weather 
if you waited to enter the Sierras until June 15th.   

> "If you start from Kennedy Meadows on June 15th, you'll probably encounter 
> little snow."

In only about 10 of the past 30 years would this work for a hiker.  It just 
so happens that several of the last years have been close enough to average for 
this to work out.   Chances are not extremely slim, they are significant.

> There's no genius on your part 

I don't think that I have ever claimed that, nor have I represented ever that 
my predictions were highly accurate or not subject to many, many variables.

> Can you predict consistently and accurately what the weather will be 2-3 
> months out? 

Nope.  But I can make an educated GUESS that might be useful to some.  It 
seems to me that you are attempted to completely discount anything that can be 
gleaned from the Sierra snow reports and historical information.  It is clearly 
inexact and not a large data base.  I guess that I'm used to an inexact 
science, as geology, my profession, is that.  However, even in an inexact science by 
observing trends, building models and using analogs, you can predict where 
valuable resources are hidden with fairly good results.  They wouldn't pay me to 
do it if I didn't find something periodically versus the results of just 
shooting blindfolded.

Ah, come on Scott, have a little fun and let me have mine.  I've never 
represented it as anything more than a useful guideline that is highly variable.

Hike your own hike,

Greg Hummel
"Strider"