[pct-l] Re: Snow Predictitions (was good starting date?)

[dude at fastmail.ca (dude)]

> "If you start from Kennedy Meadows on June 15th, you'll probably
> encounter little snow." Plus or minus 2 weeks error, what do think
> my chances of being wrong are? Extremely, slim.

Perhaps "slim" is a accurate, but you could still very easily be 
wrong.  In 1998, I think that only 3-7 people made it through the 
sierras before the 3rd week in August and they were way slow.  
Several hikers flip-flopped that year in order to complete a "thru-
hike" and tons bailed.  Very few actually completed a true linear 
thru-hike.  The snow level was well over 200% of "normal" and even in 
September, there was still LOTS of snow on all the passes of the 
JMT.  The TYT had lots of snow even in some of the lower elevations 
till late August.  There were several spots where the trail was still 
under 20 ft of snow for miles.  Dick's pass took us 2 days to get 
over in the 2nd week of august (no ice axes).

I like reading Greg's predictions and his reasoning, and the current 
snow level reports.  It's valuable to me to know what the snow levels 
are, and its FUN to see if he will be right.  I never consider his 
snow-level posts to be anything more than a guess-timate by an 
experienced hiker trying to share his experience with others.  
Because of years like 1998, there is no way to rely on any predctions 
and/or plan your hike according to them.  Anyone who would put that 
much stock in anyone else's weather predictions is fool-hearty.

Additionally, I do use the posts about current snow conditions (not 
predictions) to plan some trips.  Last May (2003) someone posted a 
message that indicated the peak flow day in Yosemite, and I really 
appreciated that.  In fact, I drove 10 hrs from Oregon to Yosemite to 
be there on that day and it was spectacular.  I went back three more 
times this summer and saw the falls dwindle down to 1/10 their size 
on that glorious day.  Stuff like that is why I am on this list.

My whole point is to just to say "you never know".  The Sierra 
Nevadas fairly routinely get snow in every month of the year.  It 
could be a normal snow year with a fast melt-off by mid May, and then 
there could be a huge dump of 30 ft over the last two weeks in may or 
even into June.  Combine that with mild temps, and very few people 
will be hiking in the high sierra by mid-June.  Is that scenario 
likely?  Probably not.  Is it possible?  for sure.  How many times 
has that happened in the last 50 years? probably more than you 
think.  Will it happen on YOUR thru-hike?  there is no way to tell.  
You just gotta plan your hike as best you can and leave the rest up 
to fate.  There is nothing you can do about the weather.

HYOH.

peace,
dude

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