[pct-l] good starting date?

[Bighummel at aol.com (Bighummel@xxxxxxx)]

Bill,

This is a common question and, of course, the answer depends primarily upon 
two things:
1) How heavy of a Winter and early Spring weatherwise has it been, and,
2) Your level of experience, equipment and comfort-wise, with snow, ice, rain 
and cold conditions.

A couple of scenarios to give you an idea of the timing involved to get 
through the mountains of Sth Calif. and more importantly the Sierra at the earliest 
time;

- If the coming winter dumps an above average amount of snow in the Sierras, 
and the weather in the early Spring adds to or preserves that snow pack well, 
then it is likely to stay around and not melt off to the point of passibility 
until mid or even late June.  Back calculate how much time you estimate that 
it will take you to hike from Campo to Kennedy Meadows and you have your 
starting date.  Now, you may be able to enter the Sierras in this situation earlier 
if you are accustomed to using snow shoes, ice axe and crampons and traveling 
in snow and ice conditions, albeit expect rather moderate conditions 
considering the Southern Sierra doesn't commonly get too artic-like in the Spring.

If the coming Winter is on the light side of average and warm Spring weather 
helps to accelerate the meltoff, then you might be able to get through the 
Sierras beginning as early as mid or late May.  In 1977, the driest year on 
record in the Sierras, many of us entered the Sierras on May 1!   This is one end 
of the extreme and not the norm.

You can track the snow pack in the Sierras by checking out;  <A HREF="http://cdec.water.ca.gov/snow/current/snow/pillowplots/Kern.html";>
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/snow/current/snow/pillowplots/Kern.html</A>   This is the address for the 
Kern River survey stations which are in the Sth Sierras and therefore what 
you are likely to face first going in.  Upper Tyndall Creek station sits just 
south of Forester Pass at 11,400 feet and is a good indication, IMHO, of the 
conditions there.

Tom Reynolds and I offer predictions on the first of March each year on when 
the earliest date will be for a thru-hiker to enter the Sierras.  His 
prediction leans toward a thru-hiker who doesn't want to deal with much or any snow 
and ice.  My prediction is for one who is comfortable with snow and ice 
conditions, is equipped to handle them and is comfortable doing so.  Usually my 
prediction date, therefore, is about 2 weeks ahead of his.  He bases his predictions 
on the volumes of runoff in the drainages that are gauged by the state.  My 
predictions are based upon the amount of snow and rate of meltoff at certain 
high elevation snow survey sites and comparing those conditions to historical 
records.  This is fun for us to do and we usually have a bet going on who was 
closest, considering our diffferent criteria.  He won last year, I think.

Also, don't underestimate the mountains in Sth California.  San Jacinto and 
the San Gabriels take you above 9,000 feet.  There can be significant amounts 
of lingering snow, particularly in heavy Winter and cold Spring years.  
Starting early puts into these conditions.  Be prepared.

In average or normal years, most thru-hikers start in late April but your 
schedule is the only right one.  The ADZPCTKO is held in late April in order to 
help as many thru-hikers as possible.

Best regards, and please note all of the caveats and conditional statements 
in the above.

Greg Hummel
"Strider"


In a message dated 10/9/2003 3:43:37 PM Pacific Daylight Time, 
barclayb@comcast.net writes:

> I hear different recommendations for when to start a south-north thru-hike. 
>  When should I arrive in Campo?  Mid-April?  I'm looking to start as early 
> as possible, and plan to finish in between 5 and 6 months.
>