[pct-l] Questions on the Amazing Hike

[dude at fastmail.ca (dude)]

> Later we read, "June 25, 2003. Zeb is now at the 1,200 mile mark
> of the 2,658 mile trail."  Ok, here the numbers are getting
> interesting. After 36 days, he has covered 1200 miles and has 1458
> to go on the remaining 31 days. Do for the first 36 days he
> averaged 33 miles per day and the last 31 he now has to average 47
> miles per day. But somewhere in here has to be factored in the
> hitch hike trip back to Yosemite and then the bus ride back to
> Redding, and the side trip to Portland.

When I started writing this I was inclined to agree with John's and 
others' doubts. However, after doing some calculations, I have 
discovered that his claims are not beyond the relm of *possibility*.  
I am not saying that I would not like more proof (like someone 
talking to him on the trail, or signatures in registers), but I am 
saying that it may not be as far fetched as it seems on the surface.

In 1998, I ran into a through hiker named Brian Sweet at VVR.  he had 
done the AT numberous times, and was working on doing the PCT for the 
first time.  He was also an instructor for Outward Bound, which is 
how he made a living (meaning that being an outdoorsman was his 
career).  I asked him what the most difficult section of the PCT was 
and his answer was "The Yosemite Washboard", which is just north of 
Tuolumne extending for about 100+ miles, which is also within the 
first 1200 miles of the trail mentioned above.  Hiking 1200 miles 
within 33 days is 36 MPD, which is not that unreasonable in this 
section for someone in elite condition.  I am not an elite athlete 
and I acheived 38 MPD on the JMT, with minimal training.  My wife is 
even less athletic than I am (and less interested in hiking) and she 
achieved 21 MDP on the TYT, which is in the heart of the "Yosemite 
Washboard".  Additionally, its possible  he was able to hike much 
more than 36 MPD prior to reaching the Sierras.

Using Craig's PCT planner (http://www.pctplanner.com), I calculated 
that hiking at 3 mph for 15 hrs per day will allow you to reach Pooh 
Corner (1150 miles) in exactly 30 days (adjusting 30 min extra for 
each 1000ft of elevation gain).  When you just look at the numbers 
like that, this does not seem like it would be unreasonble for 
someone in great shape. 

OTOH, when you compare the kid's performance with other elite 
hikers/ultrarunners who have hiked the exact same sections of the 
trail, it becomes less reasonable to assume that he actually was able 
to acheive such mileage.  Blake Wood, who is an accomplished ultra 
runner, did the JMT in 5+ days while supported by his dad and only 
carrying a 12lb pack.  He averaged less than 40 MPD for the first 
four days, then 55 miles on the last day running 22hrs straight.  
Fiftyfive miles in 22hrs is only 2.5 mph.  If blake Wood can only 
average 2.5 mph on this section of the trail, it seems doubtful that 
a relatively unknown kid could just decide to jump up and do 
something no other elite athlete has ever done before.

Who knows?  One thing is for sure: We need more info to make a solid 
determination.

peace,
dude



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