[pct-l] Questions on the Amazing Hike

[chwillet at indiana.edu (Christopher Willett)]

I started on May 9 this year and finished August 21.  I first saw 
an entry from Zeb when I got to Burney Falls SP on July 10.  I took a 
half a day off in South Lake Tahoe and nothing in between (well, a 
night in Sierra City).  I never saw Zeb go by, despite putting 
up mostly mid 30 mile days in this stretch.  Also, Glory, Will, Birdie, 
Tutu, and Rye Dog never saw Zeb go by. Except for Wall and Beast (who 
was in Yreka when I went by him), this accounts for all the front 
runners this summer.  Is he the real deal?  Perhaps, but I doubt it.

Chris

On Wed, 24 Sep 2003, dude wrote:

> > Later we read, "June 25, 2003. Zeb is now at the 1,200 mile mark
> > of the 2,658 mile trail."  Ok, here the numbers are getting
> > interesting. After 36 days, he has covered 1200 miles and has 1458
> > to go on the remaining 31 days. Do for the first 36 days he
> > averaged 33 miles per day and the last 31 he now has to average 47
> > miles per day. But somewhere in here has to be factored in the
> > hitch hike trip back to Yosemite and then the bus ride back to
> > Redding, and the side trip to Portland.
> 
> When I started writing this I was inclined to agree with John's and 
> others' doubts. However, after doing some calculations, I have 
> discovered that his claims are not beyond the relm of *possibility*.  
> I am not saying that I would not like more proof (like someone 
> talking to him on the trail, or signatures in registers), but I am 
> saying that it may not be as far fetched as it seems on the surface.
> 
> In 1998, I ran into a through hiker named Brian Sweet at VVR.  he had 
> done the AT numberous times, and was working on doing the PCT for the 
> first time.  He was also an instructor for Outward Bound, which is 
> how he made a living (meaning that being an outdoorsman was his 
> career).  I asked him what the most difficult section of the PCT was 
> and his answer was "The Yosemite Washboard", which is just north of 
> Tuolumne extending for about 100+ miles, which is also within the 
> first 1200 miles of the trail mentioned above.  Hiking 1200 miles 
> within 33 days is 36 MPD, which is not that unreasonable in this 
> section for someone in elite condition.  I am not an elite athlete 
> and I acheived 38 MPD on the JMT, with minimal training.  My wife is 
> even less athletic than I am (and less interested in hiking) and she 
> achieved 21 MDP on the TYT, which is in the heart of the "Yosemite 
> Washboard".  Additionally, its possible  he was able to hike much 
> more than 36 MPD prior to reaching the Sierras.
> 
> Using Craig's PCT planner (http://www.pctplanner.com), I calculated 
> that hiking at 3 mph for 15 hrs per day will allow you to reach Pooh 
> Corner (1150 miles) in exactly 30 days (adjusting 30 min extra for 
> each 1000ft of elevation gain).  When you just look at the numbers 
> like that, this does not seem like it would be unreasonble for 
> someone in great shape. 
> 
> OTOH, when you compare the kid's performance with other elite 
> hikers/ultrarunners who have hiked the exact same sections of the 
> trail, it becomes less reasonable to assume that he actually was able 
> to acheive such mileage.  Blake Wood, who is an accomplished ultra 
> runner, did the JMT in 5+ days while supported by his dad and only 
> carrying a 12lb pack.  He averaged less than 40 MPD for the first 
> four days, then 55 miles on the last day running 22hrs straight.  
> Fiftyfive miles in 22hrs is only 2.5 mph.  If blake Wood can only 
> average 2.5 mph on this section of the trail, it seems doubtful that 
> a relatively unknown kid could just decide to jump up and do 
> something no other elite athlete has ever done before.
> 
> Who knows?  One thing is for sure: We need more info to make a solid 
> determination.
> 
> peace,
> dude
> 
> 
> 
> _________________________________________________________________
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----------------------
Christopher Willett
Department of Mathematics
Indiana University
831 East Third Street
Bloomington, IN. 47405-7106
(812)-855-1883
chwillet@indiana.edu
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