[pct-l] Re: early success rate

[Bighummel@aol.com]

benschif writes:

<< I think 
 I know, or have talked to, or have corresponded with, or have heard 
 lecture, all of the early attempters-- the success rate was well 
 above 50% (well above 90% for the first few years). One has only to 
 check the registers at and near the border (or even lurk on pct-l) or 
 check ALDHA or PCTA to know that there is less than 10% success 
 currently. >>

FWIW, in 1977 we (about 30 hikers gathered in Weldon at the foot of the 
Sierras) counted about 150 people who had started with the intention to hike 
all or part of the trail.  It would be very difficult to estimate the ratio 
between thru and section hikers.  However, through post-hike communications 
we found that only about 15 people finished.  I would guess that makes at 
best a 20% success rate and more likely a 15%.  I had heard from a friend 
that hiked it in 1975 that less than a hundred had started and less than ten 
had finished.

I don't think it matters who you are, what you carry, when you hiked it or 
how much experience you have.  What matters is your resolve.  And this, of 
course, only applies to those (fools?) who try to thru-hike in one season.  
Mother nature also plays a significant role, both to allow more success in 
some years and less in others. 

IMHO,

Greg "Strider" Hummel
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