Re: [pct-l] Ultralight, a matter of technique?

[Ben Schifrin <benschif@sonnet.com>]

>Where are you getting the success rate statistics? Is this your general
>take, or is there a source for this information?
>
>Thanks
>
>Troubadour

I'll freely confess that it is unscientific, but defensible. I think 
I know, or have talked to, or have corresponded with, or have heard 
lecture, all of the early attempters-- the success rate was well 
above 50% (well above 90% for the first few years). One has only to 
check the registers at and near the border (or even lurk on pct-l) or 
check ALDHA or PCTA to know that there is less than 10% success 
currently. The guidebooks are probably the biggest culprit-- you 
don't have to get scared by planning for the unknown.

There are some authors trying to get a more accurate take on these 
numbers-- the successful ones are easiest, the drop-outs, obviously 
harder. I can put you in touch with them, if you want more 
nitty-gritty.

And this wasn't a "holier-than-thou" comment. I have learned a lot, 
from all the pct-l folks with new techniques. And I plan to use a 
number of them, but I won't try them for the fist time, on what was 
(for my slow, heavy butt) a 156-day trip-of-a-lifetime!

Ben

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