[pct-l] snow conditions and predictions

[Mike Chapman]

Forget the forecast,ive been watching it snow for 4 or 5
days(groundhog day syndrome),ive lost power for most of it. Its
dumping! My shovel is no match. PCT take me away!

On 2/17/11, Ken Murray <kmurray at pol.net> wrote:
> Well, the snow level this morning in the Southern Sierra topped 100% of
> April 1 average (101%), finally. (just looking at the southern Sierra, which
> is the part relevent for PCT nobos)
>
> http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/swcchart.action
>
> I think there are some things that can be said with some certainty.
> This is not likely going to be a minimal snow year, or a maximal snow year,
> unless a pattern develops which has not been seen before.
>
> I like the above snow chart best, because you can choose which years are
> plotted.  If you plot them all, then a pattern emerges:  March is the month
> when the path is set for the season.
>
> In the 2 of the years that ended up with the line above the average,  they
> got massive dumps in the 2nd half of march.  The third was last year, which
> saw a very unusual pattern of a series of storms IN APRIL, which did not so
> much add to the snowpack as much as stopped the melting.
>
> In all the rest of the years, the spring melt starts and continues to the
> end.  Usually, starting in early March.  I imagine onset of the melt has to
> do with the average ambient temperature rise seen in spring.  It would be
> interesting to see that chart plotted.
>
> The current series of storms will undoubtedly add to the pack.  But it looks
> like the next newsworthy event will be when the spring melt begins.
>
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