[pct-l] snow conditions and predictions

[Ken Murray]

Well, the snow level this morning in the Southern Sierra topped 100% of April 1 average (101%), finally. (just looking at the southern Sierra, which is the part relevent for PCT nobos)

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/swcchart.action

I think there are some things that can be said with some certainty.
This is not likely going to be a minimal snow year, or a maximal snow year, unless a pattern develops which has not been seen before.  

I like the above snow chart best, because you can choose which years are plotted.  If you plot them all, then a pattern emerges:  March is the month when the path is set for the season.

In the 2 of the years that ended up with the line above the average,  they got massive dumps in the 2nd half of march.  The third was last year, which saw a very unusual pattern of a series of storms IN APRIL, which did not so much add to the snowpack as much as stopped the melting.

In all the rest of the years, the spring melt starts and continues to the end.  Usually, starting in early March.  I imagine onset of the melt has to do with the average ambient temperature rise seen in spring.  It would be interesting to see that chart plotted.

The current series of storms will undoubtedly add to the pack.  But it looks like the next newsworthy event will be when the spring melt begins.