[pct-l] Oregon outlook

[Nathan Miller]

I went over to Central Oregon yesterday and decided to also take the opportunity to do some trail recon.  I went over Santiam Pass and returned over Wapanitia Pass.  I was surprised by what I saw...or, rather, what I didn't see.

The snow cover up there is rather anemic.  At Santiam Pass, I saw a little bit of bare ground here and there, amounting to maybe 5% of the total area.  Normally, there should be no bare ground visible at all this time of year.  Those of you who've been there know that Santiam Pass is a broad, nearly flat, volcanic ash plain (and now those of you who haven't been there also know this).  You'll also know that the fires a few years ago left it pretty open for the foreseeable future, so there's effectively no foliage to block snowfall an areas in the vicinity of the road (There's still plenty of unburned forest starting a few trail miles south of the road.), so this paints a decent picture.  Santiam Pass is around 4800 ft.  On steepers slopes, the amount of snowcover is less and as I crested the...er...crest and entered the rain-shadow, the snowcover dropped so dramatically, that within just a couple of road miles, there was none at all!

Going back over Wapanitia Pass, there was very little snow until just west of the Hwy. 216 junction.  It looked like I could have even driven in to Timothy Lake without much trouble.  At the pass, where the PCT crosses the highway, I'd say there was maybe 80-90% snow cover.  The probably indicated more precipitation than at Santiam because the tree canopy is fully intact here.  Still, it looked like I probably could have hiked the trail from here to Breitenbush Lake without too much trouble.

-A look at the traffic cams at www.tripcheck.com reveals that the currently thin snow cover is also the case at the other passes.  Even what I can see from the Mt. Ashland ski area cam suggests there's less snow there at 7000 ft. than there should be in mid-February.

The ski areas on Mt. Hood and Gov't Camp had their night lights on, so they're still going, but the base looks kind of thin.  There's more snow predicted over the next week, which will add to what's there.  Still, it's looking like we can expect a low snow year in the Oregon Cascades.  This could be good or bad depending on how you look at it.  For us lowly section-hikers, it could be good because it means we can get out there earlier.  For us veggie gardeners, it could be good because it indicates it may be warmer this season (Last year sucked for veggies--it took forever for summer to arrive and even when it did, it was really weak and a lot of people had to figure out what to do with a whole lot of green tomatoes...things like melons, especially watermelon, were complete lost causes.).  It might not be so good for through-hikers because once y'all slog through all the heavy Sierra snow--which looks like it'll take a lot longer this year--y'all'll face
 prematurely drying water sources in Oregon and NorCal.  Earlier drying will also increase fire danger, which, of course, could pose problems for hikers.  On the other hand, earlier drying could also shorten the mosquito season, which would be good news for everyone.  An earlier spring could be good for the mountain huckleberry crop, or the earlier drying could be bad for it.  If that latter is the case, there could be more trouble with bears in September and October as they look for supplemental food.

We still have a couple of months until through-hiking season starts and most of us know that a lot can happen weather-wise between now and then.  Still, it's currently looking like it might be a good year for flip-flopping.

-Nate the Trail Zombie
Newberg, OR



 
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