[pct-l] Oregon outlook

[Greg Hardwick]

We went snowshoeing at Mt. Bachelor  a few weeks ago(just south of the
Sister's).  There was a 4 to 5 foot snowbase.  It was warm though.  Will be
there next weekend, I doubt much change though.

-----Original Message-----
From: pct-l-bounces at backcountry.net [mailto:pct-l-bounces at backcountry.net]
On Behalf Of Nathan Miller
Sent: Sunday, February 13, 2011 9:44 AM
To: pct-l at backcountry.net
Subject: [pct-l] Oregon outlook

I went over to Central Oregon yesterday and decided to also take the
opportunity to do some trail recon.  I went over Santiam Pass and returned
over Wapanitia Pass.  I was surprised by what I saw...or, rather, what I
didn't see.

The snow cover up there is rather anemic.  At Santiam Pass, I saw a little
bit of bare ground here and there, amounting to maybe 5% of the total area.
Normally, there should be no bare ground visible at all this time of year.
Those of you who've been there know that Santiam Pass is a broad, nearly
flat, volcanic ash plain (and now those of you who haven't been there also
know this).  You'll also know that the fires a few years ago left it pretty
open for the foreseeable future, so there's effectively no foliage to block
snowfall an areas in the vicinity of the road (There's still plenty of
unburned forest starting a few trail miles south of the road.), so this
paints a decent picture.  Santiam Pass is around 4800 ft.  On steepers
slopes, the amount of snowcover is less and as I crested the...er...crest
and entered the rain-shadow, the snowcover dropped so dramatically, that
within just a couple of road miles, there was none at all!

Going back over Wapanitia Pass, there was very little snow until just west
of the Hwy. 216 junction.  It looked like I could have even driven in to
Timothy Lake without much trouble.  At the pass, where the PCT crosses the
highway, I'd say there was maybe 80-90% snow cover.  The probably indicated
more precipitation than at Santiam because the tree canopy is fully intact
here.  Still, it looked like I probably could have hiked the trail from here
to Breitenbush Lake without too much trouble.

-A look at the traffic cams at www.tripcheck.com reveals that the currently
thin snow cover is also the case at the other passes.  Even what I can see
from the Mt. Ashland ski area cam suggests there's less snow there at 7000
ft. than there should be in mid-February.

The ski areas on Mt. Hood and Gov't Camp had their night lights on, so
they're still going, but the base looks kind of thin.  There's more snow
predicted over the next week, which will add to what's there.  Still, it's
looking like we can expect a low snow year in the Oregon Cascades.  This
could be good or bad depending on how you look at it.  For us lowly
section-hikers, it could be good because it means we can get out there
earlier.  For us veggie gardeners, it could be good because it indicates it
may be warmer this season (Last year sucked for veggies--it took forever for
summer to arrive and even when it did, it was really weak and a lot of
people had to figure out what to do with a whole lot of green
tomatoes...things like melons, especially watermelon, were complete lost
causes.).  It might not be so good for through-hikers because once y'all
slog through all the heavy Sierra snow--which looks like it'll take a lot
longer this year--y'all'll face  prematurely drying water sources in Oregon
and NorCal.  Earlier drying will also increase fire danger, which, of
course, could pose problems for hikers.  On the other hand, earlier drying
could also shorten the mosquito season, which would be good news for
everyone.  An earlier spring could be good for the mountain huckleberry
crop, or the earlier drying could be bad for it.  If that latter is the
case, there could be more trouble with bears in September and October as
they look for supplemental food.

We still have a couple of months until through-hiking season starts and most
of us know that a lot can happen weather-wise between now and then.  Still,
it's currently looking like it might be a good year for flip-flopping.

-Nate the Trail Zombie
Newberg, OR



 
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