[pct-l] Prepared for weather

[Rick Paulus]

Some are weather-wise, some are otherwise.
-Benjamin Franklin 
AT thru-hiker - 1772

> From: Timothy Nye <timpnye at gmail.com>
> Date: Sun, 2 May 2010 14:45:59 -0700
> To: Gary Wright <gwtmp01 at mac.com>
> Cc: pct-l at backcountry.net
> Subject: Re: [pct-l] Prepared for weather
> 
> I think that the main reason people are coming to faulty conclusions based
> on insufficient data is that for most their experience involves the more
> extensive regions of the country where such fluctuations in weather do not
> occur.  Here the changes are sudden, dramatic and severe.  The desert is, in
> essence, a harsh environment.
> 
> I love the trail and the people on it.
> 
> Gourmet
> 
> On Sun, May 2, 2010 at 2:34 PM, Gary Wright <gwtmp01 at mac.com> wrote:
> 
>> 
>> On May 2, 2010, at 5:15 PM, Eric Lee wrote:
>>> To be fair, the spring weather in SoCal over the past several years has
>> been
>>> very kind to people with super-ultralight gear.  Aside from a couple of
>>> freak storms, it's largely worked out fine for everyone.  It's no
>> surprise
>>> that people learned that skimping on gear is ok.
>> 
>> Assuming that two or three years worth of data is sufficient to draw
>> conclusions
>> regarding weather is really a bad idea.  I know that in 2006 there was a
>> snow/
>> ice storm in late April in the Lagunas and I believe in 2005 thru-hikers
>> ran
>> into cold rain in this area and 2005 was the year that John Donovan lost
>> his
>> life on San Jacinto in a snow storm. Last year there was snow around
>> Memorial
>> day that hit lots of hikers in the Big Bear and Wrightwood parts of the
>> trail.
>> If I remember correctly in 2003 there were bad storms around San Jacinto
>> during
>> thru-hiker season.
>> 
>> So 2003, 2005, 2006, 2009, and 2010 all had bad weather events in SoCal for
>> thru-hikers based on my memory alone.  I bet Weather Carrot could give us
>> a more authoritative opinion but I don't think he is on PCT-L.
>> 
>> It seems to me that people are basing their gear decisions on incomplete
>> data
>> or wishful thinking.
>> 
>> It would still be helpful to know if hikers are aware of this weather
>> history and choosing to ignore it or they are simply ignorant of the
>> history
>> and so the information needs to be better disseminated.
>> 
>> The most alarming thing I've heard this year is that people shipped their
>> bad-weather gear ahead.  I can understand that some tents/gear might not
>> hold up well to a night of rain and snow and 50 MPH winds but that is
>> better
>> than not having the gear at all!
>> 
>> Radar
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> 
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