[pct-l] Prepared for weather

[Timothy Nye]

I think that the main reason people are coming to faulty conclusions based
on insufficient data is that for most their experience involves the more
extensive regions of the country where such fluctuations in weather do not
occur.  Here the changes are sudden, dramatic and severe.  The desert is, in
essence, a harsh environment.

I love the trail and the people on it.

Gourmet

On Sun, May 2, 2010 at 2:34 PM, Gary Wright <gwtmp01 at mac.com> wrote:

>
> On May 2, 2010, at 5:15 PM, Eric Lee wrote:
> > To be fair, the spring weather in SoCal over the past several years has
> been
> > very kind to people with super-ultralight gear.  Aside from a couple of
> > freak storms, it's largely worked out fine for everyone.  It's no
> surprise
> > that people learned that skimping on gear is ok.
>
> Assuming that two or three years worth of data is sufficient to draw
> conclusions
> regarding weather is really a bad idea.  I know that in 2006 there was a
> snow/
> ice storm in late April in the Lagunas and I believe in 2005 thru-hikers
> ran
> into cold rain in this area and 2005 was the year that John Donovan lost
> his
> life on San Jacinto in a snow storm. Last year there was snow around
> Memorial
> day that hit lots of hikers in the Big Bear and Wrightwood parts of the
> trail.
> If I remember correctly in 2003 there were bad storms around San Jacinto
> during
> thru-hiker season.
>
> So 2003, 2005, 2006, 2009, and 2010 all had bad weather events in SoCal for
> thru-hikers based on my memory alone.  I bet Weather Carrot could give us
> a more authoritative opinion but I don't think he is on PCT-L.
>
> It seems to me that people are basing their gear decisions on incomplete
> data
> or wishful thinking.
>
> It would still be helpful to know if hikers are aware of this weather
> history and choosing to ignore it or they are simply ignorant of the
> history
> and so the information needs to be better disseminated.
>
> The most alarming thing I've heard this year is that people shipped their
> bad-weather gear ahead.  I can understand that some tents/gear might not
> hold up well to a night of rain and snow and 50 MPH winds but that is
> better
> than not having the gear at all!
>
> Radar
>
>
>
>