[pct-l] March 1st Totally Irresponsible Earliest Sierra Entry Prediction

[Kathryn Zimmerman]

What's been your hit rate over the years?

Bag Lady

On Mon, Mar 1, 2010 at 10:46 AM, <bighummel at aol.com> wrote:

> Well, here it is . . . every year at or about March 1st I take a WAG at
> when I, if hiking the trail this year, would consider entering the Sierra.
> Taking a look at the snow survey sensors in the southern Sierra ( because
> nothing further north is normally critical to any entry timing) conditions
> are running 117% above average. This means that you, the aspiring PCT
> thru-hiker, face a higher probability of a late spring snow storm that can
> delay your entry even more, and, even if a normal melt off schedule plays
> out, you are still facing a late entry into the Sierra. Thus, my prediction
> for 2010 of the earliest date that a thru-hiker, with ice axe, crampons and
> the knowledge on how use them and handle him or herself in light snow and
> ice conditions, will consider entering the Sierra is June 21st.
>
>
> Standard wagering amounts with Tom Reynolds are assumed.
>
>
> Good luck, 2010'ers!
>
>
> Greg Hummel "Strider"
>
>
> " Travel light, carry little, keep it simple."
>
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-- 
- Kathryn