[pct-l] March 1st Totally Irresponsible Earliest Sierra Entry Prediction

[bighummel at aol.com]

Well, here it is . . . every year at or about March 1st I take a WAG at when I, if hiking the trail this year, would consider entering the Sierra. Taking a look at the snow survey sensors in the southern Sierra ( because nothing further north is normally critical to any entry timing) conditions are running 117% above average. This means that you, the aspiring PCT thru-hiker, face a higher probability of a late spring snow storm that can delay your entry even more, and, even if a normal melt off schedule plays out, you are still facing a late entry into the Sierra. Thus, my prediction for 2010 of the earliest date that a thru-hiker, with ice axe, crampons and the knowledge on how use them and handle him or herself in light snow and ice conditions, will consider entering the Sierra is June 21st.  


Standard wagering amounts with Tom Reynolds are assumed.  


Good luck, 2010'ers! 


Greg Hummel "Strider"


" Travel light, carry little, keep it simple."