[pct-l] Fw: [DCSAR] Interesting and ominous weather predication

[CHUCK CHELIN]

Good morning, all,

I agree with PCT Mom:  Don’t dawdle and hope the weather will be OK in the
N. Cascades.

In spring in the south every day promises to be warmer, longer, and sunnier
than the last, while the snowpack slowly diminishes day by day.  The
snowpack is mostly firm and easy to walk upon.  Navigation is OK because the
visibility is good and there are likely to be tracks to follow.

By the time a hiker reaches N. Oregon or S. Washington it’s easy for them to
believe that since they’ve been through the Sierras they can handle whatever
snow they encounter.  Unfortunately, fresh snow is much more difficult to
deal with than firm snowpack.

In the N. Cascades in autumn the days are getting shorter and colder, and
any snow that arrives is likely to stay long enough to be troublesome.
 Sometimes
early winter storms pass quickly and sunny days return, but just as often
the “pineapple express” settles in and assures several days – or a week – of
overcast, heavy snow, and very low visibility.  The snow may stop, but odds
are good that it will just turn to rain instead.  Very sloppy.  The trail --
and previous hikers’ tracks -- are likely to be covered with 6-18 inches of
fresh fluff. The freshly covered trail and the poor visibility really
aggravate navigation.  A hiker can’t walk on this fluff, and must trudge
through it, knee deep.  In that stuff, snowshoes are only marginally useful,
and they really slow progress.

As you snooze in your warm bag in the early-morning dark it’s likely you
will hear muted, Thump …. Thump …. all around the camp.  That will be some
other hiker whacking the sagging underside of their tent or shelter to knock
off enough snow to create some space inside.

Listen to Mom:  Do what you have to do to get there early to mid-September.

Steel-Eye

Hiking the Pct since before it was the PCT – 1965

http://www.trailjournals.com/steel-eye

http://www.trailjournals.com/SteelEye09


On Sun, Jan 17, 2010 at 7:05 AM, Stephen Adams <reddirt2 at earthlink.net>wrote:

> Yeah, sounds a bit overdone, but I must admit it is nice to see someone
> with a little passion.  As far as actual precipitation we'll just have to
> wait and see.  while a big week long dump of snow will certainly help the
> drought situation, it will be hard to beat what we got in '98.  What worries
> me about this series of storm forecasts is that the colder storm is said to
> be followed by a warmer one based on the pineapple express.  A bunch of rain
> on a bunch of snow is what flooded Reno and Yosemite etc in recent years,
> and also in the past.  So we'll have to wait and see how the week, and then
> the next couple months unfold.  If it starts looking like '98, where some of
> the high basins and passes in the Sierra were still snow bound into August,
> it could make for a very interesting season indeed.  Personally I'm not
> thinking that will happen, but for now I am going to see if I can't find my
> umbrella and a rain coat...
> On Jan 16, 2010, at 7:00 PM, Postholer wrote:
>
> > Yes, indeed! A major weather event is unfolding. The NWS is comparing the
> > the current weather pattern to 1995 and 1998.
> >
> > The author has been a bit over dramatic. Some bones to pick:
> >
> >> a 200+ kt jet is barreling towards...all riding this extremely
> >> powerful jet stream
> >
> > That is a respectable jet stream, but not that unusual. It happens
> > occassionally during the winter months.
> >
> >> since the 200kt jet at 200-300 mb will essentially run directly into
> >> the mountains at some point
> >
> > I laughed out loud when I read that! 300mb is about 30,000 feet or where
> the
> > jet stream lives. 200mb is about 40,000, the edge of the troposphere.
> Unless
> > we're talking Mt Everest, I wouldn't sweat the jet stream. 300mb refers
> to
> > the barometric pressure at a given altitude. The smaller the number the
> > higher the altitude. I don't completely understand the dynamics, but I
> > believe the high winds in the Sierra are due to the pressure gradient,
> not
> > the jet stream.
> >
> > -postholer
> >
> > ------------------------------------
> > Trail Journals, Google Trail Maps, Forums: http://postholer.com
> > Pacific Crest Trail Photo Atlas: http://postholer.com/photoAtlas.php
> >
> >
> >
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