[pct-l] Fw: [DCSAR] Interesting and ominous weather predication

[Stephen Adams]

Yeah, sounds a bit overdone, but I must admit it is nice to see someone with a little passion.  As far as actual precipitation we'll just have to wait and see.  while a big week long dump of snow will certainly help the drought situation, it will be hard to beat what we got in '98.  What worries me about this series of storm forecasts is that the colder storm is said to be followed by a warmer one based on the pineapple express.  A bunch of rain on a bunch of snow is what flooded Reno and Yosemite etc in recent years, and also in the past.  So we'll have to wait and see how the week, and then the next couple months unfold.  If it starts looking like '98, where some of the high basins and passes in the Sierra were still snow bound into August, it could make for a very interesting season indeed.  Personally I'm not thinking that will happen, but for now I am going to see if I can't find my umbrella and a rain coat...   
On Jan 16, 2010, at 7:00 PM, Postholer wrote:

> Yes, indeed! A major weather event is unfolding. The NWS is comparing the 
> the current weather pattern to 1995 and 1998.
> 
> The author has been a bit over dramatic. Some bones to pick:
> 
>> a 200+ kt jet is barreling towards...all riding this extremely
>> powerful jet stream
> 
> That is a respectable jet stream, but not that unusual. It happens 
> occassionally during the winter months.
> 
>> since the 200kt jet at 200-300 mb will essentially run directly into
>> the mountains at some point
> 
> I laughed out loud when I read that! 300mb is about 30,000 feet or where the 
> jet stream lives. 200mb is about 40,000, the edge of the troposphere. Unless 
> we're talking Mt Everest, I wouldn't sweat the jet stream. 300mb refers to 
> the barometric pressure at a given altitude. The smaller the number the 
> higher the altitude. I don't completely understand the dynamics, but I 
> believe the high winds in the Sierra are due to the pressure gradient, not 
> the jet stream.
> 
> -postholer
> 
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