[pct-l] Manning by mid-September

Tue Jan 19 15:22:56 CST 2010

Excellent advice, Steel-Eye!

Early season snow is "fluff" or "potato soup", depending on its moisture 
content. In either case, it is Not the consolidated, able-to-walk-on, Spring 
stuff hikers saw in May and June. It is exhausting to wallow through, will 
get you wet and cold fast, and you will not be able to make a fraction of 
the miles you may need to at the dramatic and desperate late end of your 
epic adventure. As Steel-Eye cautioned, the days will be shorter, too, so 
this is not the time to be caught along the narrow, exposed ridges of the 
North Cascades.

To avoid such a sad ending to your hike, plan for realistically achievable 
daily mileages (based on your personal pre-hike training trips) to get you 
to your conquerors victory at Monument 78 by mid-September and don't blow 
excess trail time that will throw you off schedule. Factor time for 
resupplies, hitching, injury, weather, laundry, Plan B adjustments, and so 
forth. Hope for the best, but plan for the worst. Put it in the schedule.

If you discover that you're hiking ahead of schedule, then take a day to do 
whatever you want other than hiking, explore the side trail, fall asleep in 
the high alpine meadow warm in the Spring sun, watch the den of marmots 
emerge from their winter's sleep under the snow, go swimming (if the bugs 
aren't too bad!), or catch up on your journal. Unless you're out there to 
"go, go, go" every day, take a break now and again and enjoy where you're 
at--you may not have the chance later.

So, dare to hike ahead of the "herd" and depart early. Give yourself more 
time to hear, smell, see, and feel all the trail has to offer by going a bit 
slower (some people can do this even at high speed--are you one?). If you 
have the time and ability to lengthen your schedule, it will only increase 
your experiences, memories, and skill levels (hiking in rain, snow, creek 
crossings that will be there anyway, mud, and bugs, etc.).

Yes, as Steel-Eye said, "Do what you have to do to get there early to 
mid-September,' but it needn't have to be, therefore, a mad rush, if you 
give yourself more time and prepare for what you expect to encounter (trail 
conditions and weather). Remember, I started March 14th (pct) and March 1st 
(cdt) and didn't have a problem, only great memories (maybe a Plan B or two 
along the way!). But find out what to expect and train for it--it will only 
make you a more confident mountain traveler!

Only you can decide what you want to do, what you want to accomplish and get 
out of your Hike-of-a-Lifetime. Take lots of long hikes in the worst of 
conditions before hand to learn about yourself and your food, gear, schedule 
desires, physical ability, and how you deal with loneliness, struggle, 
isolated decision-making, and the like. Then work all this pre-experience 
into your planning/preparation so your trip will be a success, safe, and a 
happy one all the way to Manning by mid-September!

Mtnned
Mountain Education
South Lake Tahoe, Ca

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "CHUCK CHELIN" <steeleye at wildblue.net>
To: "Stephen Adams" <reddirt2 at earthlink.net>
Cc: "Postholer" <public at postholer.com>; <pct-l at backcountry.net>
Sent: Tuesday, January 19, 2010 11:36 AM
Subject: Re: [pct-l] Fw: [DCSAR] Interesting and ominous weather predication

Good morning, all,

I agree with PCT Mom:  Don’t dawdle and hope the weather will be OK in the
N. Cascades.

In spring in the south every day promises to be warmer, longer, and sunnier
than the last, while the snowpack slowly diminishes day by day.  The
snowpack is mostly firm and easy to walk upon.  Navigation is OK because the
visibility is good and there are likely to be tracks to follow.

By the time a hiker reaches N. Oregon or S. Washington it’s easy for them to
believe that since they’ve been through the Sierras they can handle whatever
snow they encounter.  Unfortunately, fresh snow is much more difficult to
deal with than firm snowpack.

In the N. Cascades in autumn the days are getting shorter and colder, and
any snow that arrives is likely to stay long enough to be troublesome.
 Sometimes
early winter storms pass quickly and sunny days return, but just as often
the “pineapple express” settles in and assures several days – or a week – of
overcast, heavy snow, and very low visibility.  The snow may stop, but odds
are good that it will just turn to rain instead.  Very sloppy.  The trail --
and previous hikers’ tracks -- are likely to be covered with 6-18 inches of
fresh fluff. The freshly covered trail and the poor visibility really
aggravate navigation.  A hiker can’t walk on this fluff, and must trudge
through it, knee deep.  In that stuff, snowshoes are only marginally useful,
and they really slow progress.

As you snooze in your warm bag in the early-morning dark it’s likely you
will hear muted, Thump …. Thump …. all around the camp.  That will be some
other hiker whacking the sagging underside of their tent or shelter to knock
off enough snow to create some space inside.

Listen to Mom:  Do what you have to do to get there early to mid-September.

Steel-Eye

Hiking the Pct since before it was the PCT – 1965

http://www.trailjournals.com/steel-eye

http://www.trailjournals.com/SteelEye09

On Sun, Jan 17, 2010 at 7:05 AM, Stephen Adams 
<reddirt2 at earthlink.net>wrote:

> Yeah, sounds a bit overdone, but I must admit it is nice to see someone
> with a little passion.  As far as actual precipitation we'll just have to
> wait and see.  while a big week long dump of snow will certainly help the
> drought situation, it will be hard to beat what we got in '98.  What 
> worries
> me about this series of storm forecasts is that the colder storm is said 
> to
> be followed by a warmer one based on the pineapple express.  A bunch of 
> rain
> on a bunch of snow is what flooded Reno and Yosemite etc in recent years,
> and also in the past.  So we'll have to wait and see how the week, and 
> then
> the next couple months unfold.  If it starts looking like '98, where some 
> of
> the high basins and passes in the Sierra were still snow bound into 
> August,
> it could make for a very interesting season indeed.  Personally I'm not
> thinking that will happen, but for now I am going to see if I can't find 
> my
> umbrella and a rain coat...
> On Jan 16, 2010, at 7:00 PM, Postholer wrote:
>
> > Yes, indeed! A major weather event is unfolding. The NWS is comparing 
> > the
> > the current weather pattern to 1995 and 1998.
> >
> > The author has been a bit over dramatic. Some bones to pick:
> >
> >> a 200+ kt jet is barreling towards...all riding this extremely
> >> powerful jet stream
> >
> > That is a respectable jet stream, but not that unusual. It happens
> > occassionally during the winter months.
> >
> >> since the 200kt jet at 200-300 mb will essentially run directly into
> >> the mountains at some point
> >
> > I laughed out loud when I read that! 300mb is about 30,000 feet or where
> the
> > jet stream lives. 200mb is about 40,000, the edge of the troposphere.
> Unless
> > we're talking Mt Everest, I wouldn't sweat the jet stream. 300mb refers
> to
> > the barometric pressure at a given altitude. The smaller the number the
> > higher the altitude. I don't completely understand the dynamics, but I
> > believe the high winds in the Sierra are due to the pressure gradient,
> not
> > the jet stream.
> >
> > -postholer
> >
> > ------------------------------------
> > Trail Journals, Google Trail Maps, Forums: http://postholer.com
> > Pacific Crest Trail Photo Atlas: http://postholer.com/photoAtlas.php
> >
> >
> >
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