[pct-l] Clumps, herds and where to find them...

[dsaufley at sprynet.com]

David,

I did write something on this yesterday, but it probably got lost (or ignored) in the myriad of things I wrote.

Before the KO became a magnet for nobo starters, what you describe is roughly what we experienced.  First a trickle of occasional hikers (like you and Michele when you came through), gradually building to 10, 15, 20 per day, spread out over several weeks, reaching a crescendo of 30 or so, and then tapering off in a reverse pattern, also lasting several weeks. The disbursement was much greater over the two months we see hiker traffic. 

Since 2004, we still see the minimal ramp up and ramp down in early May and late June, but what hits us in the middle is insanity, with 20-30 coming in per day, and 60 at the peak last year.  It's as though it gets turned on and off like a faucet -- THEY ALL COME AT ONCE in about a two week window.  And, as the number of hikers continues to increase, the impact of this artificial pattern will increase as well.

Some people contend that there's only a two week window to start the trail and finish.  This is not borne out in reality -- there is a much wider window to start the trail, and left to their own devices and choices, people used to spread themselves out a great deal more.  The Kick Off by itself doesn't cause the numbers of hikers to increase -- it causes the pattern to change by giving people a weekend to start on or around.  

There are a number of popular hiking trails out west where they have instituted lotteries and per day limits on the number of people on the trail.  It would break my heart to see this happen on the PCT, because it would take away the fundamental attraction of the trail, which to me is all about freedom.  

L-Rod

-----Original Message-----
>From: David Toms <ukstoveman at hotmail.com>
>Sent: Mar 14, 2007 12:42 AM
>To: pct-l at mailman.backcountry.net
>Subject: [pct-l] Clumps, herds and where to find them...
>
>The key question that I think remains unanswered is:
>What do people think a 'normal' pattern, absent a KO, would be? i.e. are you 
>expecting a steady trickle of 10-20 hikers/day over 3-4 weeks?
>
>
>In 05 (a pretty bizarre year given the conditions and lack of recent 
>experience with high snow years) what fascinated me is that there was still 
>a herd...
>
>... but it was coming southbound.
>
>It comprised people who had flipped from Agua Dulce, Walker Pass, Kennedy 
>Meadows, Lone Pine, Whitney Portal, pure SOBOs, in fact folk from everywhere 
>imaginable. Some had started at the kickoff, some before, some after, and 
>some pure SOBO. Some didn't even attend the kickoff.
>
>Despite all the different locations, dates etc., we met c. 90% of people 
>within a week, between Seiad Valley and Crater Lake. These people were 
>800-1500 miles into their hiking, with start dates varying by weeks, yet 
>they had clumped.
>
>I find it hard to attribute such a heterogeneous herd to the kickoff. 
>Instead, I attribute it to human nature. For some odd reason, people seem to 
>like being around other people, even weirdos like us PCT hikers.
>
>3-400 people starting a trail within 3-4 weeks = 14/day assuming even 
>dispersion (no kickoff). One bad storm on Fuller Ridge holding people in 
>Idyllwlid for 3 days, and you've got 42 people leaving on the same day. We 
>saw >12 hikers in Idyllwild on the same day in 05, and we left the border 2 
>weeks _before_ the kickoff, in a year when 'received wisdom' was that the KO 
>was way too early.
>
>We loved the KO, and also loved the kindness and generosity of trail angels. 
>It would be a huge shame if either were damaged over the herd problem, and 
>IMO an even bigger shame if the KO changed but the herd remained. Then 
>everyone would have lost.
>
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