[pct-l] avalanche information -- N Cascades

[SFox <sfox@eskimo.com>]

Sobering thoughts from a local expert:

From: LorenF <LorenF@mountaineers.org>
Subject: BIG Snow Year

Friends,

As the winter of '98-'99 passes the halfway point and approaches 2/3's
term, a relentless pattern of weather gives an ominous warning for the
days and months to come.  My longtime relationship to Washington winters
as a mountain guide and avalanche instructor has my antennas humming.
Since I've lived here, beginning in 1959, I've never seen a long term
avalanche hazard to equal the current situation in the Cascade and
Olympic Mountains.

We want to report what makes this year so unusual, and dangerous, and
offer a warning to traveler's in Northwest backcountry away from
highways and commercial ski areas.  Brooke Drury, Recreation Resources
Manager, would like to add important and timely information about the
Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center, which is being sustained in no
small part through the efforts of The Mountaineers.

Here are some important weather facts, noteworthy by themselves,
alarming when combined:

1)  LOTS of snow has fallen, early in the season and often.  Mt.
Baker reports 660" has fallen as of February 14.
2)  There have been few periods of stabilization.  I doubt that since
November we've seen more than three days in a row without snowfall
at the higher elevations.  A record has been set for precipitation
in the three month period from November - January.
3)  There has been little warming or mountain rainfall to bring down
the frequent, normal winter slides that tend to stabilize the
snowpack.  Washington far exceeds the Rockies in the average
total number of slides per year, but it is those very slides,
over time, that tend to decrease the long-term danger.
4)  There is a lack of major sun or rain crusts in the snowpack,
which tend to limit avalanching snow to the unstable layer/s on
top of those lubricated crusts.
5)  At Mt. Baker (and elsewhere) roughly 20 FEET of snow has fallen in
the last two weeks alone. That's about 17 inches per day at Baker.
6)  Powerful and frequent winds, stronger than normal, have accompanied
these storms, forming thick and dense hard-slab snow conditions.
These strongly bonded slabs of snow, typically formed on the lee
slopes of the ranges (North & East facing) are brittle and do not
easily stabilize like softer snows that creep slowly downslope.  A
catalyst in these locations will cause the huge slab avalanches
that are unsurvivable.
7)  No end in sight.  Long-range forecasts predict more of the same.
8)  As spring approaches, the sun is getting higher in the sky, days
are longer, and the threat of rapid warming to both local
snowpacks and the general landscape is greatly increased.
9)  For unknown reasons, most likely a lack of knowledge, much of
the media has failed to recognize the unique conditions this
year and adequately warn mountain recreationists about the
consequences.

This is just a quick summation.  What does it portend?  A Worst case
scenario would be the continuation of this pattern, without warm-up,
for the next few weeks.  If that is followed by rapid warming and
either heavy rainfall or hot sunlight, we could see huge, massively
destructive climax avalanches the like of which we haven't seen in a
half century or more.  The effects may be devastating.  A climax
avalanche is one which takes the entire snowpack down to bare ground.
An entire winter's accumulation can come roaring down a mountainside,
cross the intervening valley, and race up the opposite slope for
hundreds of yards.

This scenario implies the good possibility of destruction to timber
and other natural and human structures that have never before been hit
by avalanches.  Three-foot-diameter firs would be snapped off like
matchsticks at the point of impact.  Backcountry skiers and snowshoers
could be knocked down by the windblast hundreds of yards from the
slide itself.

Avalanche transceivers could actually prove a liability.  Parties so
equipped might venture forth with a false sense of security; believing
that self-rescue was a possibility in places where the reality, this
year, warns that bodies might not be recovered until June or July.

Even if it stops snowing or raining immediately, the hazard is far
above normal. Slides will be bigger, faster, more destructive, and
will exceed normal slide paths.  On any length of slope over 20
degrees gradient you may be in harms way until midsummer.  This
prediction is based upon in-depth study and long personal experience.

What things can you do without having to cloister yourself in your
home or workplace:

1)  If leading a trip to the mountains, examine your destination and
EVERY STEP OF THE ROUTE to see whether or not the terrain and
conditions pose a threat.  Be especially vigilant if the
temperature rises significantly/suddenly by 4-10 degrees, if
steady rain falls on the snowpack, or if bright sunlight shines
directly on exposed slopes.

Avoid climbing or traversing suspect slopes or traveling along
valley bottoms beneath such slopes.  Ridge-tops are much safer;
but watch out for huge cornices overhanging leeward sides.

Special dangers: 1) steep north, east or lee faces  2) south
slopes at midday  3) warmer that usual weather.

2)  If in any doubt, cancel the trip or reschedule your route or
destination to a safer location with gentle, forested slopes and
little snowpack.  Still use good avalanche practice of never
traveling alone, and spacing party members some distance apart in
questionable spots.

3)  Don't rely on avalanche transceivers to keep you from disaster. This
isn't to imply you shouldn't carry and know how to use them.

4)  If you are a member of a party led by someone you don't know or
about whose judgment you are unfamiliar, remember that it is
better to feel foolish that to be dead.

6)  This isn't a complete list of options, nor is it given as a
substitute for high quality avalanche/snow mechanics
instruction.

In the days to come, we will be hearing in the media about huge,
destructive avalanches all across the northern hemisphere.  We at The
Mountaineers are hoping that you are around to shudder and exclaim in
wonder at the amazing power of fast-moving snow.

Many of you are already aware of the important services provided by
the Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center. The phone number is
206-526-6677.  By posting accurate and up-to-date information on
winter weather and avalanche conditions in the North Cascades and
Olympic ranges, the Center has helped to keep tens of thousands of
mountain travelers safe from the threat of avalanches.  It is,
therefore, hard to believe that government budget cuts may soon cause
 the center to close.

Please join the Friends of the NW Weather and Avalanche Center in an
effort to keep the Center up and running. You can make a great
difference with only a couple of hours time on projects ranging from
organizational development to computer data entry.  For more
information, please contact Recreation Resources Manager Brooke Drury
at The Mountaineers, at 206-284-6310 or brooked@mountaineers.org.

Travel safely this winter and spring.  We hope to see you in the
mountains!!

Loren Foss
Education/Advocacy Manager

Brooke Drury
 Recreation Resources Manager
 
<><><><><><><><>
Dale Flynn
206-362-4988
daleflynn@halcyon.com 


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