[pct-l] PCT thru-hike

["The Weathercarrot" <weathercarrot@hotmail.com>]

For several months now I've been in the unpleasant position of having to 
choose between a '99 PCT thru-hike and a summer of trail crew. In most 
of the years since '93 I've managed to stay out of that dilemma by just 
doing both (hiking and crew). But this year it was going to be one or 
the other, so after endlessly going back and forth on it, I have decided 
that for now, I am genuinely drawn more to the crew world. For many 
reasons, it makes me very sad to be missing this year's PCT hikers, 
several of whom I've known for years. Unfortunately, I haven't yet 
mastered the skill of being able to do two things like that at once. :) 
So, it looks like another fully AT-related year for me, and there is 
still the potential of hiking several hundred on that trail in the 
latter half of the year. I wish you all well in your hike this season. 
Looks like you will be in good company.

Oh, and by the way - my 2 cents on that percentages thread - unlike the 
AT, the success rate on the PCT is much more connected to conditions 
(specifically snowpack) of a particular year, so the rate is extremely 
variable. In years where the Sierra is at or below normal, I would go 
out on a limb and say that the odds are as high as 50%, and not the 10% 
that has been suggested. In years like '83, or '93, '95, and '98, yes, 
the lower one is probably more correct. But one close look at '96 and 
'97, and it's clear that it was far above 10%.  Why are the chances of 
success on the PCT higher than the AT? Well, primarily, I think it's 
because the two trails have a different reputation. The AT, as this very 
accessible, well used, heavily documented path, and the PCT as this 
remote, wilderness where you have to worry about all these things that 
nobody thinks about any more in the east. It doesn't matter how much of 
all that is true - these are the images that come across. As a result, 
the PCT ends up attracting people who are more likely to have experience 
with long distance hiking, or any other type of long-term continuous 
exposure to being in the woods. The AT, in contrast, largely because of 
all the information available (which makes it sound easier than it is), 
will attract many more people with almost no experience. As to which one 
is actually harder - ultimately, all things considered, they are 
probably about the same. Just my 2 cents. Take care,

wc

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