[pct-l] NOAA Long Term Climate Predictions

[pfreiman at ucsd.edu (Freiman, Paul)]

Bill, shame on you for trying to blame NOAA for you error in forecasting the budget!
Capt Bivy  :-)


Date: Sun, 7 Aug 2005 07:20:12 -0700
From: "AsABat" <AsABat@4Jeffrey.Net>
Subject: RE: [pct-l] NOAA Long Term Climate Predictions
To: <pct-l@mailman.backcountry.net>
Message-ID: <003901c59b5b$1fe52f90$6701010a@TUSER>
Content-Type: text/plain;       charset="us-ascii"

I use these 13-month forecasts at work for budgeting. They missed the mark
big time last year. Forecast was normal rain and we received over three
times normal. Needless to say, it sure messed up my budget.

To be fair, what they give are odds, such as "40% chance of much wetter than
normal." Therefore, the NWS is never wrong!

AsABat


> -----Original Message-----
>
> I thought this long term prediction put out by NOAA was interesting,
> considering its possible effects on next year's season.  I know it's
> very early to be making predictions, but maybe if we can all remember
> this 12 months from now, we can learn whether or not they're fantastic
> at what they do. or if weather is too complex a beast to behave for us
> (my money's on the latter. but time will tell).