[pct-l] NOAA Long Term Climate Predictions

[AsABat at 4Jeffrey.Net (AsABat)]

Because of the weather forecast, I figured we'd sell at least as much water
as last year, not 22% less because the farmers got FREE water from the
skies. I am happy for the farmers. They needed a break after quarantines
because of fruit flies and Newcastle disease the year before. Sure messed up
the bottom line this year, though.

> -----Original Message-----
> From: pct-l-bounces@mailman.backcountry.net [mailto:pct-l-
> bounces@mailman.backcountry.net] On Behalf Of Freiman, Paul
> Sent: Sunday, August 07, 2005 3:21 PM
> To: pct-l@mailman.backcountry.net
> Subject: RE: [pct-l] NOAA Long Term Climate Predictions
> 
> Bill, shame on you for trying to blame NOAA for you error in forecasting
> the budget!
> Capt Bivy  :-)
> 
> 
> Date: Sun, 7 Aug 2005 07:20:12 -0700
> From: "AsABat" <AsABat@4Jeffrey.Net>
> Subject: RE: [pct-l] NOAA Long Term Climate Predictions
> To: <pct-l@mailman.backcountry.net>
> Message-ID: <003901c59b5b$1fe52f90$6701010a@TUSER>
> Content-Type: text/plain;       charset="us-ascii"
> 
> I use these 13-month forecasts at work for budgeting. They missed the mark
> big time last year. Forecast was normal rain and we received over three
> times normal. Needless to say, it sure messed up my budget.
> 
> To be fair, what they give are odds, such as "40% chance of much wetter
> than
> normal." Therefore, the NWS is never wrong!
> 
> AsABat
> 
> 
> > -----Original Message-----
> >
> > I thought this long term prediction put out by NOAA was interesting,
> > considering its possible effects on next year's season.  I know it's
> > very early to be making predictions, but maybe if we can all remember
> > this 12 months from now, we can learn whether or not they're fantastic
> > at what they do. or if weather is too complex a beast to behave for us
> > (my money's on the latter. but time will tell).