[pct-l] ADZ and the Pulse of the PCT

[rogers at isi.edu (Craig Milo Rogers)]

	I take as my theme:

    Do the benefits of the ADZ outweight its costs, and what can
    be done to improve its overall affects?

On 05.04.26, dsaufley@sprynet.com wrote:
> In fact, to this point in time, I don't think any of the other ADZ committee
> members, except AsABat who I'd copied on the correspondence, even know I'd
> brought this up to be introduced for discussion.  

	I've been on the committee since the 2004 ADZ, and I remember
discussing this issue with you before, possibly at last year's ADZ,
but possibly online.  I discussed this problem with other people at
the ADZ this year, before I even appreciated that it was the reason
that you weren't attending.

	Donna's points, as I frame them, are:

1)	The ADZ causes a clump (I call it a "pulse") in the flow of PCT hikers
	beyond what would be created by other factors, such as:

	1) the thruhiking starting window (constrained bu heat in the south,
	   snow and meltoff in the Sierra, and early snow in Washington),

	2) the fact that most Post Offices are closed on Sundays, and
	   many are closed on Saturdays, and

	3) other day-of-the-week limitations, such as trailhead/town
	   transportation.

2)	This heightened pulse degrades the hiking experience (this point
	can be elaborated regarding thruhikers, trail angels, Postmasters,
	store keepers, etc.).


	Balanced against that are the benefits of the ADZ, such as
better hiker preparedness, the benefits of banding together in the
extreme south, getting advice from past thruhikers, getting to know
current thruhikers, etc.  Although some (many?) thruhikers don't
attend the ADZ, I think that most who attend it find it of value.

	Can I quantify the benefits and the disadvantages of the ADZ?
I actually could write a proposal for a study on this topic, and the
sections I don't personally know how to write I could find help with
from my coworkers and people on this list... but I doubt that I'd be
able to attract the requisite level of funding to execute the thing
properly.  So, in my case at least, the discussion devolves to
experience and instinct rather than numbers and logic.  (That's OK,
too, so long as the discussion stays away from heat and thunder.)

	I think that the ADZ is an overall benefit to the thruhikers.

	That said, what can be done to improve the ADZ's overall
cost/benefit analysis?  Can we improve the utility of the ADZ to each
year's class of thruhikers?  Can we ameliorate the effects of the
additional pulse that the ADZ creates?  We heard proposals in both
directions at this year's committee meeting; the ADZ organizers are,
so far as I can tell, both aware of and concerned about these issues.

	One possibility is to focus the ADZ more tightly on the
current crop of thruhikers.  Given the limited space at Lake Morena,
this probably means finding ways to encourage thruhiker attendance
while discouraging non-thruhiker attendance, such as by giving
thruhikers an earlier shot at registration.  This may (or may not!)
improve the benefit of the ADZ to new hikers, although paradoxically,
it could even increase the pulse effect that is of concern to Donna,

	Another possibility that was mentioned at the meeting was to
hold the event a week or two later and focus more effort on providing
thruhikers with transportation to/from various points in Southern
California so they can attend the event.  This approach might reduce
the pulse, but it also might reduce the value of the event to some
thruhikers (the ones who hiked the southern deserts *before* the ADZ
and its sage advice, and the ones who were unable to meet the
logistics of getting on and off the trail at the right time).

	Here is another option: spread the ADZ out.  Hold it over a
week, or over several consecutive weekends (AWZ?  AMZ?).  The benefit
to this proposal is that it directly reduces the effect of the pulse
created by the ADZ.  The downside of this proposal includes: 1) it may
reduce the opportunity for new thruhikers to meet each others, and 2)
how would we ever find the volunteers and donations to staff and run
such an event, not to mention participation by vendors, the PCTA, the
Forest Service, etc.?  Of course, I am awed by Greg and Carl's ability
to pull off the current ADZ, so perhaps my pessimism regarding a
longer ADZ is unfounded.

	I thank anyone who reads this far for their attention.  I
encourage others with proposal that address this problem to write
short summaries of them, with both the pros and cons of each proposal.

					Craig "Computer" Rogers