[pct-l] 2017 thru-Hike Attempt

[Barry Teschlog]

Don wrote:I'm starting at Campo on April 20th.

How about that snow in the Sierra!  It's 180% above average and there could
be more coming. I was hoping for average.  This appears to be THE YEAR
prophesied in Yogi's Book.

Any thoughts?Reply:In re the snow, it's too early to tell how big it'll be - big yes, but how big is TBD.  I hiked in the big snow year of '06.  What really put that one over the top is that it continued to snow well into April, both adding to the April 1 totals AND delaying the melt.
If it's a cool wet spring, expect there to be even more snow than there might be otherwise, given the totals to date.  That would be a monster snow pack.  If, OTOH, it stops snowing mid March and its a warm spring....it'll be a meh..."normal"-ish year that will be quite doable.

One upside for this year will be the desert and water availability.  Campo Creek, a proxy for the first several days on trail, started flowing for the first time in a long time in January with the then rains, and is flowing especially strong after the rain earlier in the week.  I felt like a chump carrying enough water to get from one "reliable" source to the next, only to find 3-4 more seasonal sources between there.  But better too much water in the desert than not enough.
As for the Sierra, it is difficult, but doable in a big snow year for the properly trained (navigation, ice ax use, stream crossing techniques, etc), properly equipped (ice axe, traction aids, appropriate clothing, maps & data to include bail out routes, etc) and motivated thru hiker.  Walking on sun cupped snow is slow going and physically more demanding that clear trail.  Navigation is more challenging, especially when the trail is snow covered in forest.  

One option you have, as you head north from Campo, is to moderate your pace to arrive at Kennedy Meadows at an appropriate point in the melt.  An advantage you have today compared to '06 when I hiked is you will be able to easily track the melt as you go north.  Tools such as the Postholer overlay snow maps didn't exist then.  Taking an extra zero here and there, plus simply going slower between town stops will be an option to manage your arrival date at KM.

I headed in from Kennedy Meadow on June 14th - not the earliest, but earlier than many that year.  It was absolutely spectacular.  I wouldn't trade those 12 days getting to VVR (and hiking up Mt. Whitney along the way) for anything.  Met several ill equipped, ill trained, or simply uncomfortable with the conditions people that turned back and headed out.  Wise move on their part.
The Sierra in a high snow year is for the prudently bold hiker.  Yeah, I know, sounds like a contradiction.  But consider this:  Others who may turn back have a different measure of "impassable" than you do.  Their threshold may be significantly lower than yours, given skill, gear, etc.  Go forth and see for yourself, don't let the naysayers stop you from at least looking.  Conditions change rapidly.  The story you heard from someone who was there 2 days ago is obsolete given how fast snow melts in middle to late June.  Once you get in there, to a tricky spot that turned back others, only commit though once you carefully evaluate the situation and judge it to be suitable to your standards.  If you let others fear turn you back, you will have than nagging doubt years later, wondering if you could have made it.  OTHO, if you go there, put your own eyeballs on the situation and determine its too much for you, you will have the peace of knowing.  Don't get "Go Fever" and push forward no matter the danger - go fever is what slaughtered the Challenger crew.  Be as dispassionate and objective in your evaluation of conditions as you can be and only go forward when suitable.

As physically difficult as the snow walking was, the highest objective danger I experienced was the creek crossings.  Bear Creek was the worst, but others weren't far behind.  A hard post hole through the snow may have bruised me, but Bear Creek bloodied me (and several others I know about) when it knocked us down and sent us tumbling down stream.

One thing you should NOT consider:  Don't bother trying to flip-flop anywhere.  There won't be anywhere to flip to.  Nor Cal has even more snow (proportionally) than the Sierra and the snow levels are lower the further north you go - the valleys up in the High Sierra, 8,000 feet, are clear in mid-late June, but 8,000 foot high sections are snow bound by Tahoe and points north.  Oregon and Washington have roughly normal snow packs.  Mid June isn't the time to start a SOBO from Harts Pass or a flip this year.
Anyways, enjoy.  Consider yourself lucky that you got a challenging year.  "Winning" a hard & close game is far more satisfying that blowing out a weak opponent.

YMMV.  2 cents.  Opinions are like pie holes, we all have 'em.  This is worth what you paid.  HYOH.  Yadda, yadda, yadda on disclaimers.