[pct-l] Timberline's Question about Snowpack Around San

[Pietro, Michael M.D.]

Bilbo, thanks for the info!

Timberline, I'll be starting April 2 so I may see you. OTOH I may never catch up to you ;-)

Mike Pietro
Bellingham, WA

Message: 3
Date: Tue, 4 Mar 2014 14:19:12 -0500
From: "robert" <bobbilbo at msn.com>
Subject: [pct-l] 
To: <Pct-L at backcountry.net>
Message-ID: <BLU180-DS6ECCD53F347ED9A71F0ABC08E0 at phx.gbl>
Content-Type: text/plain;	charset="iso-8859-1"

Timberline,

Go to PCTA's map page http://www.pcta.org/discover-the-trail/maps-and-guidebooks/<http://www.pcta.org/discover-the-trail/maps-and-guidebooks/> and choose the "Snow Depth" overlay.  This product is dominantly based on satellite observations and is a very good ballpark source of current snow depths.  You'll see that in Southern California the problem on the trail is not around San Jacinto and Fuller Ridge, but in the San Bernandino and San Gabriel Mts.  Clearly 4 feet was not deposited around San Jacinto.  In my professional (?) opinion, the probability is high that you will have no problem whatsoever with snow on Fuller Ridge on April 14 and none anywhere else in SoCal afterwards.  

I base this opinion on the amount that got deposited in the latest go-around, the fact that the Weather Service's main computer model produces no precipitation at all in SoCal between now and March 20, that climatolgically it is more and more unlikely for a major storm in SoCal every week that goes by, that it is seasonally warming between now and then, and that April 14 is 6 weeks away.  Another storm between the 20th and April 14 is still a possibility, but even so the other factors are still working in your favor.

I would be concerned enough to prepare for snow travel if I was on the trail right now or just starting.

Bilbo  (Bob)

PS Regarding the (?) above, if you insist on details I'll provide them, otherwise just consider me a retired guy who likes to hike and backpack and knows more than the average bear about weather and climate.

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