[pct-l] Irresponsible March 1st (a week late) Sierra Entry Prediction

[shon mcganty]

Note: the auther, Greg Hummel, gave Caveats.
 
Things can change in the interim.  More snow could fall and a cool spring would leave less melted.  At first I wasn't so sure I agreed with someone simply changing the "Ray Day" to an earlier time.  What I'm want to convey is that just because someone says the "Ray Day" should be this exact day doesn't mean everyone whould clamber to get to Kennedy Meadows by that day and get into the Sierras.  I'd like to see the trail be more staggered, people spred out.  It's still just fine to enter mid or late June.  If someone says the "Ray Day" could be June 1st (given the currrent trend of a low snow year hold up), then that is the earliest a thru-hiker, who's well equipt and ready for the long wild and high passes, should be leaving KM.   
 

   

________________________________
 From: Greg Hummel <bighummel at aol.com>
To: pct-l at backcountry.net 
Sent: Thursday, March 7, 2013 2:11 PM
Subject: [pct-l] Irresponsible March 1st (a week late) Sierra Entry Prediction
  
This year, like every other year since 1977, I put myself in a thru-hiker's mind and try to out guess Mother on when the earliest date might be for an experienced and appropriately geared-up hiker to leave Kennedy Meadows.  


This year is shaping up to be a thru-hiker's dream; only 51% of normal in the Sth Sierra!


Thus, I wager once again, that "Ray Day" will be two weeks late this year for entering the Sierra and entering on or about June 1st might work.


Caveats; YMMV, HYOH, and Mother can be a fickle b!tch, dumping huge amounts of snow in late spring storms that occur about 20% of the time!


Happy trails,


Greg Hummel

My favorite transportation is my legs!




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