[pct-l] What the weather is telling us

[Weathercarrot -]

Below is today's forecast discussion from the Central CA NWS office. While it's possible the rest
of the season could be very different than what we've had so far, at this point I'd be happy with a
50-60 percent precip year, which compares to less than half that in 1923, 1977, and 2007, the three
lowest snow years on record so far.

Like others have mentioned, regardless of the seasonal totals, the probability of a late spring/early
summer cold snap or snow storm does not seem to diminish in a low snow year (such as 1977). So the 
benefits of an early start might mean less old snow-pack in the Sierra or southern CA peaks, but the
earlier time of year may give you the same potential current weather hazards as in any other year. 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HNX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

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.DISCUSSION...IT IS HARD TO BELIEVE THAT EXACTLY ONE YEAR AGO THE
SNOW PACK OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WAS 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
TODAY...ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS HAVE LITTLE MORE THAN A TRACE OF SNOW.
THE LARGE PRECIPITATON DEFICIT THIS SEASON TRANSLATES INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AS WELL. IF YOU ARE CURIOUS AS TO HOW DRY THIS SEASON HAS
BEEN COMPARED TO LAST YEAR IN FRESNO AND BAKERSFIELD...TAKE A LOOK
AT THE CHART BELOW.

IN CASE YOUR MEMORY HAS FAILED YOU...MEASURABLE RAIN HAS NOT FALLEN
IN FRESNO OR BAKERSFIELD SINCE BEFORE THANKSGIVING...NOVEMBER 20TH
TO BE EXACT. THAT WAS 52 DAYS AGO. IN FRESNO...IT IS THE LONGEST
STRING OF DRY DAYS BETWEEN THE MONTHS OF NOVEMBER AND MAY SINCE 1972.
THAT YEAR...THERE WERE 64 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT A DROP OF RAIN.
IF MEASURABLE RAIN DOES NOT FALL IN FRESNO BEFORE JANUARY 25TH...THAT
RECORD WILL BE BROKEN. THE 12Z RUN OF THE MODELS OFFERS A GLIMMER OF
HOPE THAT THE PATTERN WILL BECOME WET ACROSS CENTRAL CA BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF KERN COUNTY.

TODAY...HOWEVER...LIKE SO MANY DAYS SINCE NOVEMBER 20TH...IS BONE
DRY. A VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER
THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. YET TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
RUNNING AT LEAST 7 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST. THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND KEEP THIS LOW NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
FRIDAY. DURING THIS TIME...A REX BLOCK WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE
WEST COAST...AND A STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL CA.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER CA...HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD THIN
OUT BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. AND AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE
STRONGER...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OVER THE GRAPEVINE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONALLY...DOWNSLOPE WARMING MAY OCCUR AT
THE SOUTH END OF THE SJ VLY. IN BAKERSFIELD...THAT MEANS HIGH TEMPS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD CHALLENGE THE RECORDS. THE RECORD HIGH
TEMP IN BFL FOR BOTH DAYS IS 73 DEGREES...ESTABLISHED IN 1914 AND
1980 RESPECTIVELY.

DURING THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS BRING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO
THE PAC NW AND FORECAST THIS TROUGH TO PICK UP THE CLOSED LOW
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND BRING IT INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CA
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IS GREATLY LIMITED WITH THIS LOW...SO
IT WILL PROBABLY BRING NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
TO THE CWA THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS CA.
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE ONLY CHARACTERISTIC OF THE WEATHER
THAT WILL SEEM NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
AS THE ATMOSPHERE FINALLY COOLS TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. SHORT WAVE
RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERWARD...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS HINT OF A
PATTERN CHANGE...ONE THAT MIGHT BRING A SHIFT SOUTHWARD IN THE
STORM TRACK TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND THE POSSIBILITY OF WET
WEATHER...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF KERN COUNTY. BUT FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT 7 DAYS... CENTRAL CA WILL REMAIN STUCK IN AN UNFORGIVINGLY DRY
PATTERN.


              PERCENTAGE OF NORMAL PRECIP (JUL 1ST THRU JAN 11TH)

                         2010-2011          2011-2012
                        -------------      -------------

FRESNO                 220% (9.67 IN)      36% (1.57 IN)

BAKERSFIELD            302% (7.41 IN)      53% (1.31 IN