[pct-l] Campo to Warner Springs

Wed Mar 30 08:40:50 CDT 2011

I quickly guessed in my head and was off by less than a mile...  I don't feel bad getting it that close.  Also there is plenty of off trail miles to resupplies etc... So your actual mileage might have exceeded 21 a day.

Point being ... You can make it with a late start;  but a healthy respect of the additional and unique challenges it poses will greatly help your success rate.

And to the OP,  you'll meet other thrus ... But as I said 'not many'

Goodluck to all of you,  I am leaving for a few days to test my gear in some steeper terrain down south where hopefully it won't be as cold

Sent from my iPod

On 2011-03-30, at 12:16 AM, "Peter Shaw" <pshaw999 at cox.net> wrote:

> Paul,
> 
>  
> 
> I believe your math is wrong. I actually reached the border in 132 ½ days after leaving Campo and that period divides into the “official” distance of 2650 miles to give an exact daily average of 20.0 (I’m an engineer and cannot help being so anal retentive - I actually beat the target I set by two hours). That pace includes all of the zeros & neros I took. My point about Dan’s late start is if he leaves on 26 May that is 17 days later than I started. If he maintains my pace, then he’ll arrive on 5 Oct. As you pointed out, the risk of taking the hike into October is the potential for big snow storms in Washington, but that is clearly the gamble he is going to take.  If Dan can pull off 25 miles per day (including zeros, etc) then he’ll get there in 106 days or  9 Sep. Personally, I think that is a tough challenge for most people although quite possible. I met a guy on day 3 who left Campo the day after me and was one of the first to arrive in Canada in ‘09. But I was giving him a 30 years advantage. Don’t get me wrong, I know it’s not a race and we all should simply adopt our own individual pace that is comfortable and minimizes injury risk. But I just don’t think Dan has eliminated his chance of finishing with a late May start date based on my trip stats (which I consider to be about average). Whether Dan can match or even exceed that pace is for him to decide on his own.
> 
>  
> 
> Peanut Eater
> 
>  
> 
> From: Paul Robison [mailto:paulrobisonhome at yahoo.com] 
> Sent: Tuesday, March 29, 2011 6:13 PM
> To: Peter Shaw
> Subject: Re: [pct-l] Campo to Warner Springs
> 
>  
> 
> that came out wrong ... i didn't mean it like 'dude you'll never make it'
> 
> but you averaged 20.9 miles a day, even with your zeros...
> 
> ... he's going to have to average 25 miles a day;  even with all his zeros.   that's really pushing by most humans standards ... not to say he can't or won't do it,  but the odds get statistically harder.  or else all the sierra snow he avoided will be made up in spades come Washington.
> 
> all i had said in the beginning was you won't find very many thrus in the last week of may...  or course there will be some,  even fewer who make it.  
> 
> 
> 
> From: Peter Shaw <pshaw999 at cox.net>
> To: Paul Robison <paulrobisonhome at yahoo.com>; Dan Engleman <danengleman at yahoo.com>; dan rapkin <clawsabre97 at hotmail.com>
> Cc: pct-l at backcountry.net
> Sent: Tue, March 29, 2011 8:58:09 PM
> Subject: RE: [pct-l] Campo to Warner Springs
> 
> I beg to differ. I left Campo on May 9 and reached Manning Park on 18 Sep.
> If Dan can match my sixty-year-old pace, he'll get there the first week of
> October. Most years that will be OK. He'll also catch up a bit in the
> Sierras where the snow will abate significantly from what the early herd
> experience.
> 
> My personal opinion is that mid May is the sweet spot for a successful thru
> hike. I think all those folks that leave well before the kickoff make it
> much harder for themselves. 
> 
> Just my take.
> 
> Peanut Eater
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: pct-l-bounces at backcountry.net [mailto:pct-l-bounces at backcountry.net]
> On Behalf Of Paul Robison
> Sent: Tuesday, March 29, 2011 5:42 PM
> To: Dan Engleman; dan rapkin
> Cc: <pct-l at backcountry.net>
> Subject: Re: [pct-l] Campo to Warner Springs
> 
> there will be three or four,  90% of which won't make it to Canada.  unless 
> you're a scott williamson... the people who start that late and make it are
> of 
> an entirely different breed.
> 
> actually i wonder if halfmile's list graphs the success rate as people start
> 
> later and later, to find a sweet spot for making it based on start date.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ________________________________
> From: Dan Engleman <danengleman at yahoo.com>
> To: Paul Robison <paulrobisonhome at yahoo.com>; dan rapkin 
> <clawsabre97 at hotmail.com>
> Cc: "<pct-l at backcountry.net>" <pct-l at backcountry.net>
> Sent: Tue, March 29, 2011 8:37:11 PM
> Subject: Re: [pct-l] Campo to Warner Springs
> 
> 
> I am going to thru hike this year and am leaving Campo on May 26th ... 
> 
> Dan
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ________________________________
> From: Paul Robison <paulrobisonhome at yahoo.com>
> To: dan rapkin <clawsabre97 at hotmail.com>
> Cc: "<pct-l at backcountry.net>" <pct-l at backcountry.net>
> Sent: Tue, March 29, 2011 4:05:51 PM
> Subject: Re: [pct-l] Campo to Warner Springs
> 
> You won't find many thrus that late in the season.
> 
> Depending on weather 4 or 5 miles per litter is a good guideline.  But know
> your 
> limits and be prepared for 20 to 25 miles between water sources.
> 
> Rattlers will be active;  cougars less so.  Bears no issue that far south
> 
> Hope this helps, 
> ~Paul
> Sent from my iPod
> 
> On 2011-03-29, at 6:58 PM, dan rapkin <clawsabre97 at hotmail.com> wrote:
> 
> > 
> > Hey guys,
> > I had initially planned a PCT trip for the middle of January, however, due
> to 
> >lack of funds I was forced to postpone it until the end of May.I will
> hiking 
> >with 3 other people for at least a week with the intention of completing
> all of 
> >Section A.  
> >
> > My plan is fly out from Rochester NY on the 22nd of May and arrive in San 
> >Diego, climb at Jtree for a couple days before starting the hike.My
> question is 
> >thus, I have been informed by a friend that SoCal is having a bit of a wet 
> >season, which I thought was uncharacteristic for the time of year that I
> plan to 
> >be hiking, soHow scarce will water be, and how much should I potentially
> bring?  
> >I know it's about a gallon per person, per day and we will not be bringing
> a 
> >stove, just utilizing cold foods.Also, how concerned should I be about the
> local 
> >fauna, rattlers and cougars and  such?Any and all help is appreciated and I
> hope 
> >to see you all on the trail!
> > -Dan 'the rasta man'                        
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