[pct-l] PCT thru timing for 2012

[ned at mountaineducation.org]

Based on our on-trail personal observations from 2010 and 2011 when we snow-hiked the high sierra in May, June, and July and the Tahoe Rim in June and July and personal perspectives from teaching wilderness skills along the same area since 1982, we would like to encourage next year's thru hikers to consider the following:

Reference Thoughts:

- High-flow rate and volume creek-crossings are more dangerous than hiking over snow
- The longer the upstream drainage from a creek crossing, the greater the flow and more risky the crossing
- Longer drainages exist south of Yosemite and shorter ones to the north
- Snow Bridges, when judged to be safe, are a great and fast way across high-flow creeks
- Consolidated, Spring snow, whether two feet thick or ten, is walked on with the same skills
- Consolidated snow begins to form in the Sierra as the amount of daylight increases, typically in March
- Navigation over snow is easier above timberline than below and in the trees
- Bears are not as much a problem in a snow-covered high country
- Fresh Powder Snow storms in Northern Washington can begin as early as mid-September and stop hikes
- Consolidated, hard, spring snow is easy to walk on compared to the Fall's deep powder (even with snow shoes!)
- Sierra snow storms can happen in May, but are usually short and low in quantity of snow



Main Points:

- KM entry into the Sierra in May provides the following:
    - high snow levels for ease of navigation above timberline
    - long creek drainages crossed on snow bridges
    - low creek volumes because the thaw hasn't started
    - snow bridges are still intact
    - by the time the thaw starts, you may be above Yosemite's canyons' long and high-flow creeks
    - by the time you hit the navigation-troublesome trees of Tahoe-north, you may be out of the snow
    - bears, mosquitoes, and blow-down are not an issue in the high sierra
    - you may be in Tahoe in June, able to do Oregon in July, and Washington in August, avoiding early-season 
        powder snow storms in September that stop entry into Canada
    - shorter daily mileage requirements because your hiking window started "earlier," thereby lasting longer

What this means is:
    - you avoid dangerous, long-canyon, high-flow and volume creek crossings typical of the high sierra
    - you avoid the in-trees/on-snow navigation delays found up north
    - you will be walking over snow in big, open canyons where navigation is easier and faster
    - snow bridges will help you
    - you can snow-hike straight north without flip-flopping
    - you can slow down and enjoy the high sierra while killing time for the snow to melt up north
    - you'll arrive at the shorter drainages and smaller creeks of Yosemite-north at about the same time as the thaw peaks,         the creeks come up, and the snow melts off where you can see the trail through the trees
    - you avoid early-season snow storms in NoWash that can stop your hike short of Canada
    - SoCal is done while cool and water is more available

Translated:

An "early-season" start from Mexico (say April 1st) allows you to:
    - go through SoCal while cool and wet
    - go through the Sierra on snow bridges without the danger of high creek crossings
    - arrive on dry trail and high creeks where the canyons are short and the creeks are narrow
    - do your in-trees, difficult navigation up north once the snow has melted
    - go slower
    - arrive in Canada before the snow flies
    - no need to flip-flop, just go straight thru


These are just our thoughts based on our personal observations and being on-trail for the last 37 years teaching snow and wilderness skills. We believe this year's thrus will be able to shed some light on this idea after having dealt with the thaw while in the long canyons and high elevation gain areas of the high sierra.

Ok, release the bulls....



"Just remember, Be Careful out there!"

Ned Tibbits, Director
Mountain Education
1106A Ski Run Blvd
South Lake Tahoe, Ca. 96150
    P: 888-996-8333
    F: 530-541-1456
    C: 530-721-1551
    http://www.mountaineducation.org