[pct-l] The Sierra Snow Situation and Planning

[Ken Murray]

Well, the plot (and snowpack) thickens.

As of this evening, we've reached 95% of the April 1st Snow Water Content on the ground in the Southern Sierra.  Wow.  I believe this is the most, ever.

Here is what I think is the best current tool for watching the snow pack:

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/swcchart.action

Remember that it is the SOUTHERN section that we care about, as for northbounders, the central and northern will be essentially melted out by the time you get there, and it all will for southbounders.

The snow that is falling is VERY WET, more than normal, it holds a lot of moisture.

The snowpack tool this year has a nice feature allowing comparison of different years for the last decade, plus the highest and lowest years.  In comparing all of those years--- in only two, was there significant melting that began before April 1st, in 2002 and 2006.  So there is a 4 in 5 chance that there will be the amount of moisture on the ground on april 1, as there is right now, and it will go through a normal melt cycle then, (or slower!), meaning there is a 4 in 5 chance of an average or greater snow travel year.

The story will be revealed, week by week, and by April 1st, will pretty much be complete, in terms of what will be faced.  You won't know the peak snowmelt, as that will be determined by the weather at the time, but you'll have an idea of how high the creeks will be AT peak snowmelt.

And the snowpack is VERY cold.  The snow level in Ca is down to 1,000 feet...very rare.

I'll be very interested to hear a report from Ned's class this weekend, and the condition of the snow they find.  I'll bet it's snow shelters for all!