[pct-l] Sierra Snowpack prediction

[ned at pacificcrestcustombuilders.com]

OK. Let's talk a moment about realistic preparation.

Don't count out "Mother Nature," meaning, while man tries to ensure his 
safety and security by scientific calculation and averaging statistics over 
time to, in some small way create a prediction of what will happen or occur 
in the future, man is not in control and storms can and do happen every 
month of the year. So, hope for the best while preparing for the worst. Just 
because it usually doesn't happen, doesn't mean that it won't while you're 
there, because it has in the past, so beware and carry the appropriate gear 
and have the right training and prior experience practicing it to know what 
to do when it snow like hell, the temp drops to zero with winds at 20mph, or 
it just rains for a week straight (think Oregon...).

With this in mind, you have no excuse to whine when you suddenly find 
yourself in greater discomfort than you expected....

Mtnned
Mountain Education
South Lake Tahoe, Ca
----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Postholer" <public at postholer.com>
To: <pct-l at backcountry.net>
Sent: Sunday, January 10, 2010 6:43 AM
Subject: [pct-l] Sierra Snowpack prediction


>> Every week that passes without a huge dump, makes it more
>> and more likely that we will have a average to below average
>> snowpack year.
>
> Basically, that's right.
>
> However, you stated in your earlier post the snow season "almost without
> exception" can be predicted very early, which is just plain BS.
>
> With statements like that you actually *discourage* folks to prepare when
> they should be doing exactly that, ie, Ned's snow course.
>
> As someone who influences many folks on the matter, you should know better
> or learn to know better.
>
> -postholer
> ------------------------------------
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>
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