[pct-l] 2010 Hiker Migration Estimated

[Paul Bodnar]

L-Rod wrote>
> I noticed that you gave five days between Wrightwood and Agua Dulce. I'm
> curious about this . . . since most of that section is closed and the
> outcome pending, much depends on what the alternate turns out to be. If the
> alternate is trail/dirt road, I'd guess more hikers will take it. 

 

Paul responds....

.... I'm just making an estimate based on 09 data and assuming similar conditions.   The snow pack in the Sierra, the alternate routes, this all effects the timing.  But by providing an estimate people (towns and businesses) have something to start a guess at.  This could help them better prepare for the thru-hikers.   It is possible people will decide to start later this season because of the snow levels in the Sierra, or it could be they don't want to hike with the large group of hikers so they leave early or later.  There are so many variables.. I'm just throwing out my best guess based on the limited information I have.   

 

>But if the
> alternate winds up being a monster road walk, my sense is that the vast
> majority of hikers will hitch around it by one means or another, shortening
> that window of five days down to one. And there's always the unknown
> variables of fires or storms, which can throw a monkey wrench into the
> forecasting machine. 

 

....I agree, and I think the monkey will be throwing a lot in 2010.  The snow, the alternate routes...and I'm sure a lot of other stuff.  So I'm encouraging other thru-hikers to be ready for a potential difficult but fun year.


> I've got my popcorn ready and am looking forward to the show, one way or
> another. Bring it on!

 

I hope to see you soon :)  

 

Paul

 

HikeThru.com

 		 	   		  
_________________________________________________________________
Hotmail: Powerful Free email with security by Microsoft.
http://clk.atdmt.com/GBL/go/201469230/direct/01/