[pct-l] safety on the trail

[Denis Stanton]

As two out of the five reported deaths were actually motor vehicle  
accidents this leads to the rather absurd conclusion that PCT thru  
hikers are 2.4 times more likely to die in motor vehicle accidents in  
the course of their hike than people who travel by car.

Clearly the statistical sample is too small for this to be a realistic  
statement - it's merely an odd observation

Denis


On 15/01/2008, at 11:47 AM, Lon Cooper wrote:

> Brick, If your numbers are accurate, that is a pretty high rate of
> death for thru hikers. About a 1 in 1,100 chance, assuming 500 hikers
> a year, over 11 years and 5 deaths.
>
> If the statistics here are accurate:
>
> http://www.nsc.org/lrs/statinfo/odds.htm
>
> You had a 1 in 6,535 chance of dying in a motor vehicle accident in
> the year 2004. Making thru hiking the PCT is about 6 times more deadly
> than driving or riding in a motor vehicle.
>
> But your point is well taken, that none of these were caused by bad
> guys (or bad animals) on the trail.
>
> -Lon
>

Denis Stanton
denisstanton at mac.com

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: http://mailman.backcountry.net/pipermail/pct-l/attachments/20080115/4ff9e7e4/attachment.html