[pct-l] PCT Drop Out Rate

[Donna Saufley]

I understand that approximately 500 thru permits are issued each year.  For
the past several years we have been averaging about 300 hikers at Hiker
Heaven. While it’s far from reliable data, those numbers would indicate an
approximate 16% drop out rate in the first 454 miles, and a 33% drop out
rate overall to the northern terminus.  

 

The year that the Dinsmores had 256 was 2005, and was something of an
anomaly, where there was a great deal of snow in the Sierras and below
average snow in the PNW.  Hikers started the trail down south, got through
as far as they could, and flipped.

 

L-Rod

 

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From: pct-l-bounces at backcountry.net [mailto:pct-l-bounces at backcountry.net]
On Behalf Of jeff.singewald at comcast.net
Sent: Sunday, January 13, 2008 6:57 PM
To: Patrick Beggan; Hiker97; pct-l at backcountry.net
Subject: Re: [pct-l] PCT Drop Out Rate

 

I would have to agree that the drop-out rate is likely much lower than 80%,
though I have no hard data to base this on.  I would also guess that the
drop-out rate has decreased over time for a couple of reasons.

 

One stat that I would be very interested to know is what percentage of PCT
thru-hikers make the PCT their first long-distance trail.  For me that was
the case, however, it seems that more an more AT vets are coming out west to
take another hike.  This would have some impact on a reducing the drop-out
rate I would think as these folks have a better idea of what it takes to
complete a long-distance hike.

 

While it is likely less than 50% of the thru-hikers that attend ADZ, I
wonder if the ADZ folks have ever taken a survey of this type of profile
data?  It would be interesting.

 

 

 

 

 

 

-------------- Original message -------------- 
From: Patrick Beggan <meta474 at gmail.com> 

Drop-out rate inflation is common. When I went into basic training the word
in the barracks was "fifty percent drop-out rate!" but in fact we lost about
3 guys out of 60.

 

I'm sure it's the same for the PCT. I very highly down the dropout rate is
80%. I could believe maybe 40-50% but its probably even less than that.
Although it's probably true that most of the dropouts happen in the
beginning.

 

 

 

On Jan 13, 2008, at 8:25 PM, Hiker97 wrote:





Over at Tell It On The Mountain (HYPERLINK
"http://www.tellitonthemountain.com/episode1.html"www.tellitonthemountain.co
m/episode1.html) they mentions that the drop out rate is about 35%.  I
always thought it was much higher than that for a thru hike.  I thought the
success rate was around 20% going NoBo and the drop out rate about 80%.  I
thought that only about 50% of the original class leaving Campo will leave
Kennedy Meadows and head into the Sierras.

 

I know it depends on snow, etc., but what is the average success rate each
year?  I am a little confused.

 

Thanks, Switchback the Rater


   _____  


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