[pct-l] Clumps, herds and where to find them...

[David Toms]

The key question that I think remains unanswered is:
What do people think a 'normal' pattern, absent a KO, would be? i.e. are you 
expecting a steady trickle of 10-20 hikers/day over 3-4 weeks?


In 05 (a pretty bizarre year given the conditions and lack of recent 
experience with high snow years) what fascinated me is that there was still 
a herd...

... but it was coming southbound.

It comprised people who had flipped from Agua Dulce, Walker Pass, Kennedy 
Meadows, Lone Pine, Whitney Portal, pure SOBOs, in fact folk from everywhere 
imaginable. Some had started at the kickoff, some before, some after, and 
some pure SOBO. Some didn't even attend the kickoff.

Despite all the different locations, dates etc., we met c. 90% of people 
within a week, between Seiad Valley and Crater Lake. These people were 
800-1500 miles into their hiking, with start dates varying by weeks, yet 
they had clumped.

I find it hard to attribute such a heterogeneous herd to the kickoff. 
Instead, I attribute it to human nature. For some odd reason, people seem to 
like being around other people, even weirdos like us PCT hikers.

3-400 people starting a trail within 3-4 weeks = 14/day assuming even 
dispersion (no kickoff). One bad storm on Fuller Ridge holding people in 
Idyllwlid for 3 days, and you've got 42 people leaving on the same day. We 
saw >12 hikers in Idyllwild on the same day in 05, and we left the border 2 
weeks _before_ the kickoff, in a year when 'received wisdom' was that the KO 
was way too early.

We loved the KO, and also loved the kindness and generosity of trail angels. 
It would be a huge shame if either were damaged over the herd problem, and 
IMO an even bigger shame if the KO changed but the herd remained. Then 
everyone would have lost.

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