[pct-l] re: late start

["Robinson, Brian A" <brian.robinson@compaq.com>]

>A recent post discouraged a late start date.  In the opinion of those on
the list what is the latest start date you >recommend.  How does this year
compare with others.  Thanks for your thoughts, matt

For a first time thru-hiker expecting to complete the trail in one year, May
15th.  Tremendous speed IS possible.  Ray Jardine's third hike was about 3
months, and the AT has been completed in as little as 52 days!  But these
feats were by extremely fit and experienced people.  A PCT hiker with no
thru-hiking experience should plan to spend 5-6 months on the trail.  Some
will be faster.

The limitations are average miles per day, and when winter begins in
northern Washington.  Sierra snow is not a consideration, particularly this
year.  The rule of thumb is if you get to Manning by October 1st, you've got
a good chance with the weather.  Some years good weather may hold out as
long as November 1st, but don't count on it.  If you have the gear and
experience to deal with winter storms and deep snow, you might be able to
continue, but can you carry winter gear and food for 100 miles in bad
weather?  For many of us the answer is no.

So I don't recommend PLANNING to finish any later than October 15th, and
that's pushing it.  If you can keep up a 4 1/2 month pace, you could leave
as late as June 1st.  But most first timers can't do that.  And it's better
to plan to arrive October 1st anyway.  That's why May 15th is my latest
recommendation.  If you manage a 4 1/2 month pace, you'll be done by October
1st, and a five month pace will still succeed much of the time.

Another consideration is water availability.  The later you leave, the
hotter and drier the deserts will be.  Many of the desert water sources dry
up at some point during the summer.

Brian Robinson
PCT '97 (I started May 4th and wished I'd started earlier)
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