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[pct-l] John Muir Trail starting June 20th



I've been on the JMT on 4 different trips, all in August or September. 
The winter of 1998 was very similar to the winter of 2005, so I will
compare this year to that year.  IMO, you will encounter a *tremendous*
amount of snow and it will significantly impact your trip.  I predict
that you will encounter significant sections of the trail that will be
completely covered in snow for miles on end.  I would highly recommend
practicing your navigation skills with a map and compass or map/GPS
because its really easy to lose the trail when its under 15ft of snow
for 5-10 miles.

During the last week in August 1998, most of the trail was clear, but
the passes were still heavily covered in snow and an ice axe was
preferable but not necessary since there had been an entire summer of
hikers kicking steps over the snow laden passes.  My guess is that ths
year in late June will present snow covered passes that will really
require ice axes and may require in-step crampons.  In any event, you
won;t be able to kick steps in trail runners, so I would highly
recommend boots for this purpose.  Consider this photo that was taken
last weekend and posted on the list:
http://community.webshots.com/photo/357366143/357388712NjgHAE

this photo is essentially the exact area in which the JMT travels, so
you can see how much snow there is still.  to compare, here is the same
area in late august 1998:
http://dudedesign.com/photos/jmt/large/anseladams3.jpg

here is a photo of a stream crossing in the last week of August 1998:
http://dudedesign.com/photos/jmt/large/crossing.jpg

as you can see, the crossing is fairly significant, so I would say that
in late june of this year, you will have some crossings that are pretty
dang bad.  if you can take a rope or small line to provide saftey during
the crossings, I would.  if you can carry some Tevas or water shoes that
can give you some traction during the stream crossings, this will
probably help.

Since you are giving yourself 19 days to complete the hike, you might be
able to cmplete it, but I would thank that there is a good chance that
you will not be able to finish the trail because you won't be able to
cover as much ground as you'd like.  I'd definitely make sure that you
are awar of the different bail out points along the trail:  red's
meadow, south lake trailhead, onion valley trailhead, VVR (although they
are not open yet and their website says that they will not open untill
"late june": http://www.edisonlake.com).

I'm not trying to scare you, but you really need to have a realistic
outlook on what the trip will be like.  If you have alot of
mountaineering experience, then you will probably be fine.  If you do
not, I'd be extra careful and even try to read up on mountaineering
skills (I suggest "Freedom of the Hiils").

good luck.

peace,
dude 
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