[pct-l] John Muir Trail starting June 20th

[steve_peterson at sbcglobal.net (Steve Peterson)]

I don't know that anyone on this list has gotten into the back country yet to 
have a real look-see, so most of us are just using snow sensor reports and 
guess...er, extrapolating from that :-).

What is certain right now is that Hwy 120 to Tuolumne meadow is not open and may 
not be open by the time you start. Go to

http://www.nps.gov/yose/now/tioga.htm

for progress updates on that. They are reportedly encountering 4-5' of snow on 
the road. However, the snow sensor at Tuolumne mdw (8600') is reporting darn 
close to 0" of snow as of today (temps have been in the 60s) which is a melt-off 
of 3' in 15 days. If the road isn't open at least a few days before you get 
there, you won't have a store/grill/PO at Tuolumne mdw because they won't be 
open yet.

The sensor at Volcanic Knob (near VVR) at 10,500' is saying 4-6' depending on 
the water content of the snow. Crabtree mdw (10,700') is saying 17" of snow. The 
general meltoff curve is quite steep right now and we'll know more in a couple 
of days when the monthly field surveys are done and reported. And of course, by 
June 15 or so you should be able to get an even better idea.

The snow fell in odd patterns this year--though all areas got a lot, some areas 
got a lot more than others. Tuolumne mdw seems to have been the lightest hit; 
areas farther south seem to have gotten more (very roughly speaking).

The spot everyone usually worries about is Forester Pass -- the snow sensor near 
there may not be accurate right now, so it's hard to say what's going on up at 
the pass itself. There will shortly be a field report from Bighorn Plateau which 
is another place close by, so maybe in a day or two we'll have some idea of how 
deep that is. Fortunately for you, that's a couple of week's south, so 
conditions should improve, perhaps dramatically, by the time you get there.

Snow sensor reports may be found at:

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryDaily?tum
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryDaily?cbt
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryDaily?uty
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryMonthly?s=bgh

(The first one is for Tuolumne mdw, now moot. The second is crabtree, the third 
is "upper tyndall" (nearest to Forester Pass) which may well be broken -- it 
doesn't seem to be registering all that sensibly. The last is a monthly report 
for Bighorn Plateau--the June 1st number should be reported soon).

As far as river heights go, it's tough to say. The good news is that all rivers 
that are real rivers (e.g., San Joaquin) have substantial bridges over them so 
you *should* be OK on those. The bad news is that a lot of "creeks" may be 
rivers when you get there. Evolution Creek would probably be the worst. You are 
going to ford a lot of streams, no doubt about it.

Also, the trail goes alongside some creeks that may well be high enough that the 
trail itself will be under water. I'm thinking, for example, of one stretch from 
Tully Hole south for a mile or so, as well as various places along Bear Creek 
(just south of VVR), and probably others (maybe even Lyell canyon?). Generally, 
however, the trail is high enough above the creeks that it shouldn't actually be 
underwater (under snow, maybe, but not under water).

CDEC (URLs above) also monitors river flows, but I haven't been watching that, 
so I can't help you there. Check out their website and you should be able to get 
some idea of whether the flows are increasing or decreasing as you near your 
departure date.

Finally, there are lots of places that are meadows or sandy basins in the late 
summer (but were still damp and spongy when I went through last September after 
a fairly light snow year) that will be bogs in June.

Assuming you start in Yosemite Valley (some folks "cheat" by starting from 
Tuolumne Meadows), you will see some spectacular waterfalls. If you can (i.e., 
it's open) take the Mist Trail up from the valley to Nevada Falls (it parallels 
the JMT and isn't all that much steeper) to get a close-up view of the falls.

--Steve

Drew Thayer wrote:
> I am going to attempt the John Muir Trail with 9 other people from N to 
> S from June 20th to July 8th (19 days).  I know there is a huge late 
> snowfall this year and we are worried about the snow levels on the 
> trail.  Also, the rivers will be swollen, are there any rivers that we 
> need to particularly worry about?  If anyone has an opinion on how much 
> snow we will encounter, please respond.
> 
> Drew Thayer
> 
> 
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