[pct-l] causation vs correlation

[yogihikes at sbcglobal.net (yogi)]

EXACTLY!!!  
 
The thru-hiking window is small.  The number of hikers is large.  
The wave will happen whether or not the Kick Off exists.
 
People are assuming that the Kick Off causes the wave.
 
Causation and correlation are not the same thing.
 
yogi
 
 
 
 


Slyatpct@aol.com wrote:
In a message dated 4/25/2005 3:02:56 PM Eastern Daylight Time, 
dsaufley@sprynet.com writes:

> I want to state clearly that the ADZ has grown into the BEST event for 
> long-distance hikers this side of the Mississippi, and it is quite simply 
> wonderful.
> 

Key word being "growth". 

It's not just the ADZ that has grown but the popularity of the PCT as well. 
On the AT they call it, "loving the trail to death. 

In my opinion, regardless of if there is a Kick Off or not, on the PCT, the 
window of opportunity is short and in any given year "hiker crunch" is going to 
cause an impact. How do you lessen it? You don't, you live with it. 

In normal snow years, the best timed start is the last (full) weekend in 
April. Timed to hit KM for Ray Day and/or the High Sierra for the earliest 
possible safe passage. This year is different, your best date would be two weeks 
from now. If there were no ADZ that's when the crunch would be. While the 
hikers wouldn't have to linger for the majority of snow to melt, there's a very 
good possibility they wouldn't make it to Canada on time. 

Sly
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