[pct-l] PNW Snow Depth

[waynekraft at verizon.net (Wayne Kraft)]

I am very reluctant to make guesses in February about snow depth the following summer.  I remember a year in the early 70's when friends skiing the Oregon PCT got 5-7 feet of snow between Mt Hood and Mt. Jefferson.  Having said that, the weather patterns we're experiencing down here in the Willamette Valley seem very familiar.  Little rain.  Lots of valley fog which you can often escape at 1000' or so.  When the fog clears, record high temps sometimes result.  I think Portland had a record high for the month of January this year.  Seven day weather forecasts tend to be inaccurate.  When showers are predicted, we get rainless clouds.  When rain is predicted we get showers or light mist.  My theory is that something strange is happening for which computer weather models cannot account.  The models seem to predict the predictable just fine, but weather outside the bell curve really throws them off.

Anyway, all this seems to me to be strikingly similar to the Oregon winter of 76-77.  I recall in February, '77 a group of us hiked into Pamelia Lake just west of the PCT route on the north slopes of Mt. Jefferson.  Ordinarily you'd have to ski or snowshoe this, but we had bare ground.  The lake, which should have been covered by several feet of snow, was iced over and bare.  We chopped a hole in the ice and got dozens of hungry little trout, way over the limit, even though only one of us had a license.  We fried most of 'em up for breakfast after which, much to our surprise, an Oregon State Trooper with freshly pressed pants and shiny shoes showed up to check licenses and limits.  Luckily we were down to one limit and had one valid fishing license among us. I am sure the trooper noticed the odor of fried trout in the air and the fish bones burning in the fire, but he said nothing. 

But I digress.  This year seems eerily similar to the winter of 76-77.  I'll try to get out to Pamelia Lake later this month to test my theory. I'll either get a fishing license or skip the fishing.  Bottom line:  if you hiked through Oregon and Washington in 77, I'll give you even money this summer will be the same or drier.  

Wayne Kraft at 6:15 am in the fog at 35 degrees