[pct-l] snow pack between Tuolumne Meadows and Lake Tahoe

[steve_peterson at sbcglobal.net (Steve Peterson)]

So, just out of curiousity, how do you verify your predictions? Do you head into 
the Sierras every year to check or do you have some way of getting reliable info 
from others?

Bighummel@aol.com wrote:
> 
> Steve, PRECISELY!  You, of course, should not rely upon ANY prediction 
> as a set-in-stone timing tool.  You should remain flexible as late 
> Spring storms can mix up the timing of your passibility tremendously.
>  
> Greg
>  
> In a message dated 12/17/2004 6:40:58 PM Pacific Standard Time, 
> steve_peterson@sbcglobal.net writes:
> 
>     Since I haven't been successful in coming up with a way to correlate
>     depth of
>     snow on the trail itself with snow pillow readings, my approach is
>     similar to
>     NASA's: make a gross initial estimate, then refine it as info
>     becomes available.
>     NASA doesn't aim for the moon exactly, but starts out approximately
>     on target
>     and makes mid-course corrections as the trip progresses. That's what
>     I'm
>     planning to do. My first approximation will be based on the April 1
>     depth. That
>     will be a go/no-go decision which will be "no go" if it's a really
>     heavy snow
>     year. Then toward the end of April, I'll make another decision that
>     affects my
>     exact start date. Then on May 30, I'll make another decision based
>     on the depth
>     at that time--I'll delay a few days if the snow is lingering longer
>     than I'd
>     like. The final decision (or what I hope will be the final decision)
>     will come
>     at KM. At any of those points (or at any point along the way, I
>     guess) I'll just
>     hang out a few extra days if the snow ain't cooperating.
> 
>     In other words, since a later decision will likely be a more
>     informed decision
>     (and hence likely to be more accurate), and I have no constraints
>     (like a
>     pre-purchased airline ticket) forcing me to make an early decision,
>     I'm planning
>     to put off the decision as long as possible. 
>